FXUS61 KOKX 170308 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1108 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening preceded by a line of showers and a isolated thunderstorms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled in coordination with SPC. Thunderstorms have weakened over the last hour, with a notable decrease in lightning activity. An isolated strong thunderstorm is still possible, but scattered severe thunderstorms does not look to pose a threat any longer. The cold front is about halfway through the forecast area. The line of showers with an isolated thunderstorm along or just ahead of the front will continue moving east through eastern half of the forecast area tonight. The line will likely continue to weaken due to decreasing instability. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of post-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gusty NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The terminals remain behind a cold front from a FROPA earlier this evening. Generally VFR in the wake of the cold FROPA this evening with some lingering showers expected through the night. Best chance for showers is for eastern terminals with MVFR conditions possible through the night in any showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Any W winds lingering shift to the WNW and NW into the night with occasional to increasingly frequent gusts at 20-25kt. Winds turn more NNW/N during the day and increase with frequent gusts 25-30kt expected. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Presence of SHRA tonight may bring about brief localized MVFR conditions. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night.Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/DW AVIATION...MW MARINE...DW