FXUS61 KOKX 162337 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 737 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening preceded by a line of showers and a isolated thunderstorms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled in coordination with SPC. Thunderstorms have weakened over the last hour, with a notable decrease in lightning activity. An isolated strong thunderstorm is still possible, but scattered severe thunderstorms does not look to pose a threat any longer. The cold front is about halfway through the forecast area. The line of showers with an isolated thunderstorm along or just ahead of the front will continue moving east through eastern half of the forecast area tonight. The line will likely continue to weaken due to decreasing instability. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of post-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gusty NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front moves through late day into early evening. IFR/MVFR to start, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt. Winds up to this point mainly SW with gusts around 20kt developing in the afternoon. VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly 20-25kt. Showers expected for KISP/KGON through the overnight hours, but could be possible elsewhere except KSWF through the night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR could last until around 19z. Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers through tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday PM: VFR. N winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night. Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...JP MARINE...DW