FXUS61 KOKX 160319 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The Gale Watches on the ocean waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories for Friday, but continue as Gale Watches for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a squall line that is forecast to move through. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter, the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to the west, deepening low pressure over northern New England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm, give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser chances as you head N and W. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure retreats to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the west. The associated warm front will pass through Friday morning into early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage during the late afternoon into early evening hours. VFR until late tonight, then showers and MVFR cigs will overspread the area from west to east after 06Z with ceilings lowering from MVFR to IFR. Following the warm frontal passage, expect gradual improvement with VFR conditions possible for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short time later, except for KGON which could take much of the day. It does remain possible that most terminals, especially eastern terminals, remain at MVFR or lower through the day. A fine line of heavy showers or thunderstorms looks likely with the frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday. Winds mainly SSE under 10kt. Speeds increase late tonight to around 10 kt at some coastal sites. Winds will then veer to the SW as the warm front passes with the potential for gusts to around 20kt. Gusts continue into the afternoon 20-25kt becoming mainly SW. After the frontal passage, winds shift W then NW Friday evening into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of lowering flight categories overnight into Friday morning could vary by 1-2 hours. Same with the improvement late morning into the afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z Friday with the approach of a cold front. A few gusts of 40-50kt are possible with any stronger storm. Chance of MVFR in showers overnight Friday into Saturday (following the cold frontal passage). .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening, with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25kt. Guidance is also trending toward a round of post-frontal showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance of MVFR with these showers. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient decreases overnight with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. Gales over the ocean waters are looking less likely for Friday into Friday night, and have converted Gale Watches to Small Craft Advisories for this period. Gale Watches remain in effect Saturday as there remains some uncertainty with the winds during this time frame, but continues to look less likely at this time. For the non-ocean waters, SCA conditions across the eastern and central sound, Peconic and Gardiner's Bays, while the western sound and harbor look to not reach SCA. By Friday night, SCA conditions expected all non-ocean waters lasting through the day Saturday and possibly into the first half of Saturday night, before subsiding to below SCA conditions. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night on the ocean waters before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...MW MARINE...JP