FXUS61 KOKX 151838 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 238 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The potential for wind headlines has continued to decrease for Friday night into Saturday, otherwise no significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The next frontal system approaches tonight, with a warm frontal passage during Friday morning. This will bring the next chance of any meaningful rain late Thursday night into a portion of the day Friday. The first batch of rain should be primarily light and will be associated with the warm front. The warm front is progged to lift further north towards the afternoon, thus a break in the rain is expected for several hours at this point as an approaching cold front towards evening is being progged to move a bit slower than previously indicated. Therefore the area will get into the warm sector for a large portion of Friday afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures mainly well into the 70s, especially away from the ocean. With the front progged to a be bit slower the cold front is likely to swing through primarily during the evening hours allowing instability to build some later in the day. Therefore the front may bring with it some heavier shower activity and the slight chance of a few thunderstorms. The consensus on forecasted total rainfall amounts still looks to be on the order of a half inch or thereabouts from the warm front and cold front combined. Locally higher amounts of up to three quarters of an inch, to one inch cannot be completely ruled out where any convective activity initiates. Any line of convection will be somewhat shallow and fast moving, so any downpours should be short-lived. SPC has placed a good portion of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather for late Friday / Friday evening. With the shallow nature of any expected convection the only risk is a limited wind risk with any storms. A few showers remain possible behind the front until around 06-12z Sat as the upper trough axis lags to the west and attempts to amplify. The winds will increase ahead of the cold front during Friday afternoon out of the southwest. The winds will then quickly shift to the W during late Friday evening for far western sections, then further east into the overnight hours into Saturday morning as the cold front passes through. Much drier air returns for the second half of Friday night into early Saturday morning with the winds becoming more NW and gusty as the cold front eventually gets offshore. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure retreats to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the west. The associated warm front will pass through Friday morning into early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage during the late afternoon into early evening hours. VFR until late tonight, then showers will overspread the area from west to east after 06Z with ceilings lowering from MVFR to IFR. Following the warm frontal passage, expect gradual improvement with VFR conditions developing for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals around 18Z. Eastern terminals should follow a short time later, except for KGON which could take much of the day. NE winds 5-10 kt will shift to the SE this afternoon into this evening. Speeds increase late tonight to around 10 kt at some coastal sites. Winds will then veer to the SW as the warm front passes with the potential for gusts to around 20kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of lowering flight categories overnight into Friday morning could vary by 1-2 hours. Same with the improvement late morning into the afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z Friday with the approach of a cold front. Chance of MVFR in showers overnight Friday (following the cold frontal passage). .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Afternoon: Improvement to VFR for the eastern terminals should occur by 21Z, but could take until around or shortly after 00Z Sat for KGON. SW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon. A fine line of showers/embedded thunderstorms approaches from the NW in the later afternoon into early evening hours. A few G40-50kt possible with the line. Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening, with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25kt. Guidance is also trending toward a round of post-frontal showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance of MVFR with these showers. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient relaxes some through this afternoon as high pressure builds with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across a good portion of the waters late Friday night into the day on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331- 355. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ332- 340-345-350-353. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DW MARINE...JE