FXUS64 KOHX 222333
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early
  evening, primarily east of I-65. Some storms could be strong to
  severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this
  weekend into early next week.

- Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern
CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast
through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the
Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is 
relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of 
the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon 
heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability
(2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid-
level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and 
maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for 
damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band
of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across 
Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east 
of I-65.

The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in
northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the
front moving through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next
week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the
Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late
next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture
from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist
from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move
through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to 
medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures 
are generally near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms will impact CSV over the next hour or
two, otherwise VFR conditions prevail for all taf sites. A cold
front is laid across Middle TN right now that is resulting in a
gradual northerly wind shift. Winds will relax below 10 kts in the
coming hours with high clouds passing through overnight. Areas of
dense fog will be likely at CSV and SRB overnight, burning off
after sunrise. Winds will remain northerly through the day 
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  89  62  88 /  20   0   0   0 
Clarksville    63  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Crossville     60  82  58  83 /  30   0   0   0 
Columbia       66  90  63  90 /  30   0   0   0 
Cookeville     62  84  59  83 /  30   0   0   0 
Jamestown      61  82  58  82 /  20   0   0   0 
Lawrenceburg   65  88  62  88 /  20   0   0   0 
Murfreesboro   65  90  62  89 /  30   0   0   0 
Waverly        65  87  63  87 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Baggett