FXUS64 KOHX 221659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1159 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early
  evening, primarily east of I-65. Some storms could be strong to
  severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this
  weekend into early next week.

- Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with 
  seasonal temperatures.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern
CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast
through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the
Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is 
relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of 
the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon 
heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability
(2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid-
level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and 
maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for 
damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band
of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across 
Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east 
of I-65.

The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in
northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the
front moving through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next
week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the
Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late
next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture
from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist
from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move
through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to 
medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures 
are generally near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

IFR to MVFR fog being seen at CSV/SRB. VFR should return between
13 and 14Z. Winds will be relatively light today, but occasional
gusty of 15-18 kts during the afternoon. Fog will be an issue
again tonight, especially for CSV/SRB, but may be a little more
widespread. May need to include other terminals with future
updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  64  89  62 /  20  20   0   0 
Clarksville    91  63  86  60 /  10   0   0   0 
Crossville     84  60  82  58 /  20  20   0   0 
Columbia       93  66  90  63 /  10  20   0   0 
Cookeville     86  62  84  59 /  30  10   0   0 
Jamestown      85  61  82  58 /  30  20   0   0 
Lawrenceburg   91  65  88  62 /  10  20   0   0 
Murfreesboro   93  65  90  62 /  20  20   0   0 
Waverly        92  65  87  63 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Unger