FXUS64 KOHX 200537 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1237 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will continue to slowly sag SE across Middle TN on Wednesday. This will maintain high rain and storm chances across the area, with the best coverage and intensity expected during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating combines with ample low- level moisture (PWATs remain near or above 1.5 inches). While instability will be modest behind the initial front passage, shear is weak and any training or slow-moving storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Highest probs for showers and storms will shift south of I-40 on Thursday as the front stalls across northern MS/AL. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms will remain likely, especially south of I-40. Rain totals through Thursday night could add another 0.5 to 1.5 inches for many locations, contributing to the broader wet pattern. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. No significant severe weather is expected during this time, though brief gusty winds and small hail are possible with the stronger storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The stalled frontal boundary to our south, combined with an upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern CONUS, will keep and active weather pattern in place through early next week. Multiple shortwave disturbances riding along the front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evenings. Rain chances remain medium to high each day. Forecast rainfall through the weekend and into early next week continue to support high probabilities for at least 2 inches across much of Middle TN. Some areas could see 3+ inches, especially if training storms develop. This will bring some drought relief. On the flip side, there will be some concern for minor flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will remain near normal, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s and overnight low in the mid to upper 60s. Beyond the weekend, model agreement decreases but the overall pattern favors continued unsettled conditions with daily rain chances into mid next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will increase from west to east, mainly after 12Z as a front zone settles over the area. Before the rain and storms, VFR will prevail. Variable cig/vsby conditions will accompany storms with localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. Later in the period, after 21Z, conditions will trend downward to IFR cigs with areas of showers. Winds will be generally light through the period. Directions will be variable but mainly southwest through 21Z, then mainly north northwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 63 80 64 / 90 70 70 80 Clarksville 77 62 77 63 / 90 40 60 80 Crossville 82 61 77 61 / 90 50 90 70 Columbia 82 63 81 64 / 80 60 80 80 Cookeville 82 62 78 63 / 100 60 90 80 Jamestown 83 60 77 61 / 100 60 90 70 Lawrenceburg 81 63 80 64 / 70 70 70 80 Murfreesboro 84 63 81 64 / 90 70 80 80 Waverly 78 63 79 64 / 90 50 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....13