FXUS64 KOHX 190328 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1028 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Above normal temperatures Tuesday will cool into the low-80s Wednesday into the end of the week. - There are daily medium to high rain chances Tuesday into the weekend. There is only a low severe weather threat Tuesday. - There is a high chance that rain amounts are at least 2 inches by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Satellite imagery this evening shows an upper-level trough over the Great Plains with a cold front over the Kansas/Nebraska area. On Tuesday, this trough will eject into the Great Lakes region with the cold front slowly tracking south through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this cold front, moisture will be on the rise across Middle TN. There's already evidence of this with dewpoints in the 60s and the PWAT on this evening's sounding rising to 1.14 inches. Do expect this PWAT to continue to rise with models still showing values near to above 1.5 inches. As the aforementioned front approaches, a pattern change is finally here. Scattered showers and storms will mainly favor areas west of I-65 Tuesday afternoon into the evening. While the setup isn't the most favorable for severe weather with highest wind shear displaced to the north, there does remain a low severe weather risk for storms near the front. Main concern would be strong to damaging winds, but forecast soundings do show steep mid-level lapse rates that could result in small hail. The front slowly sags south through Wednesday, and high rain/storm chances will be in place through the day. Don't anticipate severe weather Wednesday with the setup even less favorable with the instability getting pushed south ahead of the front. But it should be a beneficial setup for some much needed rain with the front and PWATs near the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Temperatures will also start to cool behind the front, from upper-80s to low-90s Tuesday into the low-80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The front stalls to our south Thursday, and with a troughing pattern setting up over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, this will keep medium to high rain chances in the forecast. With the front to the south Thursday, highest rain chances will favor areas south of I-40, but then a series of shortwaves look to bring high rain chances areawide Friday and into the weekend. This is still looking like a very good setup for the rain we do desperately need, and forecast rain totals continue to trend up. By the end of the weekend, probability looks high at 70-80% for widespread rain totals over 2 inches. This pattern will also keep temperatures closer to normal with highs in the low-80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle, however I have added in a PROB30 for CKV late tomorrow afternoon now that we finally look to have some storms in the area. Time may have to be adjusted slightly with future issuances based on latest guidance. Southerly winds will relax below 10 kts after 00Z, then become gusty again late tomorrow morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 91 68 83 / 0 30 60 80 Clarksville 72 90 67 80 / 0 50 70 80 Crossville 66 85 64 81 / 0 10 40 90 Columbia 70 90 67 82 / 10 20 50 90 Cookeville 69 87 66 82 / 0 10 40 90 Jamestown 66 88 64 83 / 0 10 30 90 Lawrenceburg 70 87 67 82 / 10 10 40 90Murfreesboro 71 90 67 84 / 0 20 40 90 Waverly 73 91 67 81 / 0 40 60 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Unger