FXUS64 KOHX 182318 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 618 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s continue through Tuesday. - There is a high chance for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The severe threat is very low. - Additional rain chances late week may push rainfall totals over 2 inches by the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty southerly winds are in place this evening, but these winds will lessen over the next couple of hours. Moisture values are improving though with current dewpoints sitting in the 60s. While dry and quiet tonight, this moisture will help to set the stage for increasing rain chances tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches. No changes to prior forecast thinking. Severe weather threat still looks to be low tomorrow afternoon and evening, but there is a low chance for strong or damaging winds for storms along the front, primarily across the western half of Middle TN. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Not much in terms of cloud cover over Middle Tennessee currently, but clouds are approaching from the west and the south this afternoon. We're already in the 80s in a lot of areas across Middle Tennessee, with highs expected to top out in the low 90s. We could possibly see a stray shower or thunderstorm from the convection to our north and west this evening, but that probability is very low at this time. Tuesday will be the start of a pattern shift in the area. Through the end of the week, Middle Tennessee will be stuck in a troughing pattern with several systems coming through. The good news is it looks to bring some much needed rainfall to our yards, with QPF through the end of the forecast period around 1.5 to 2.3 inches. The bad news is there is a severe threat associated with a cold front Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The severe threat is a marginal risk, level 1 out of 5, but not impressive. Any severe weather we get in Middle Tennessee with this will be pretty isolated, as the better parameters for more widespread severe are displaced to our northwest again. Despite cloud cover, southerly flow will raise our temperatures into the 90s once again for highs on Tuesday before the cold front swings through. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Our unsettled weather continues mid-week, with our highest rain chances Wednesday. As the cold front passes through and high pressure sets up to the north, expect rainy conditions all day on Wednesday. While it will be a soaker, severe weather is not a concern at this time. The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. We will continue to cross our fingers and hope the rain totals don't decrease! Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle, however I have added in a PROB30 for CKV late tomorrow afternoon now that we finally look to have some storms in the area. Time may have to be adjusted slightly with future issuances based on latest guidance. Southerly winds will relax below 10 kts after 00Z, then become gusty again late tomorrow morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 91 67 83 / 0 30 70 100 Clarksville 72 90 67 80 / 0 40 70 90 Crossville 66 85 64 81 / 0 10 40 90 Columbia 70 90 66 83 / 10 20 60 90 Cookeville 69 87 66 81 / 0 10 40 90 Jamestown 66 88 64 83 / 0 10 40 90 Lawrenceburg 70 87 67 82 / 10 10 60 90 Murfreesboro 71 90 67 84 / 0 20 60 100 Waverly 73 91 68 81 / 0 40 70 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger