FXUS64 KOHX 162314 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A breezy cold front is pushing through the area, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only low, light rain chances with today's frontal passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front is marching through the area this morning bringing overcast skies, gusty northwest winds, and dropping temperatures. It is quite the change from the record-breaking heat we saw Monday through Thursday. Radar shows some light returns west of I-65, so some sprinkles and light showers will be possible this afternoon and evening. Any rain amounts will be a trace to a couple hundredths. Breezy northwest winds will continue overnight with cloud cover lingering. With the cold air advection, temperatures will be able to fall to the lower to mid 40s. Saturday will be the coolest day of the season so far with temperatures only making it to the mid 50s to lower 60s! Breezy northerly winds will continue and RH values over the western half of the CWA will drop to around 30%. I would advise to not burn anything given the ongoing drought conditions. Saturday night will see winds decrease and temperatures drop into the 30s. Light frost is likely in the low- lying areas along the plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The story of the extended period will be the continuing dry conditions. High pressure will be established on Sunday with influences continuing through the work week. The upper low over the Carolina coast may retrograde west onshore mid to late week but those influences will stay east of our area. Locally, we'll see high temperatures slowly climb through the 70s through the week with plenty of sunshine. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A line of sprinkles/showers are moving east through the area, this will clear the eastern terminals by 04z. Cigs will briefly return to VFR this evening before MVFR cigs return by 07z. MVFR will remain in place through the overnight with clearing from west to east after 12z with clear skies building during the afternoon. Winds will remain gusty into tomorrow out of the north with gusts up to 22 knots. Winds will start to let up during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 46 61 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 44 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 41 54 33 63 / 40 0 0 0 Columbia 45 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 43 56 36 65 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 42 54 34 63 / 50 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 44 61 36 68 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 45 62 38 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 45 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller