FXUS64 KOHX 161128
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
628 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- A breezy cold front arrives this morning, bringing much cooler 
  temperatures for the weekend.

- The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will
  see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. 

- There are only very low rain chances with today's frontal
  passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected 
  to worsen.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Friday will be more overcast than today was with the arrival of
the cold front to our doorstep. Even though the cold front is 
mostly deprived of moisture, there is a low chance for some 
showers on the KY/TN state line. Not looking at any meaningful QPF
with these chances, but a few hundredths are possible. Highs 
tomorrow will be varied over the area: in the mid 60s in the NW to
the mid 70s in the SE. 

The real change in air mass will be felt Saturday morning and into 
the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s 
and 40s. So break out those jackets if you haven't already, you'll 
be needing them this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The colder airmass will have some spots on the Cumberland Plateau 
looking at their first frost of the season Sunday morning. After the 
cold front passes, high pressure will settle in for the work week, 
unfortunately warming our temperatures back into the upper 70s by 
mid week. Fortunately, we look to stay around seasonal normals for 
temperatures, and not get as anomalously warm as we were this week. 
The forecast has no precipitation after Sunday, so this is bad news 
for the ongoing drought in Middle Tennessee. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A cold front is moving through Middle Tennessee this morning. This
will bring a distinct NW wind shift with gusts 20-25 kts as well
as MVFR cigs. FROPA is currently occuring at CKV. BNA and MQY 
timing is 1230-1300z. MVFR cigs are forecast to stick around 
through the early to mid afternoon with skies scattering out to 
VFR for the late afternoon and evening. Additional MVFR cigs are 
possible overnight as more wrap-around clouds moves into the 
area. Winds will become N tomorrow morning with gusts 15-20 kts


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  46  61  40 /  20  10   0   0 
Clarksville    60  43  61  37 /  20  10   0   0 
Crossville     71  41  54  33 /  20  20   0   0 
Columbia       67  45  63  37 /  20   0   0   0 
Cookeville     70  44  56  37 /  30  20   0   0 
Jamestown      70  42  54  35 /  30  30   0   0 
Lawrenceburg   70  45  61  36 /  20  10   0   0 
Murfreesboro   69  46  62  37 /  20  10   0   0 
Waverly        62  45  60  39 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Sizemore