FXUS63 KOAX 221101
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering low chances (20-40%) of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms until mid-morning Saturday, with precipitation
  ending leaving a pleasant day.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up late Sunday into
  Monday (30-70%)
  
- Periodic storm chances continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Hey, I did sfc analysis by hand tonight! It reveals a stalled 
front draped from near Clarinda, through the Omaha metro, to 
Albion and continuing west. 

Widely isolated showers continue across the area this evening,
but severe weather never did materialize here despite the
conditional threat earlier today. The atmosphere had the 
buoyancy and shear available, but due to cloud cover, 
initiation didn't happen in Nebraska. A few light showers 
lingered past sunset in far southwest Iowa along an elevated 
front.

Expect the mostly dry conditions may be interrupted by 
redevelopment around 2:00 AM as a H5 shortwave pushes southeast 
through central Nebraska. Elevated CAPE peaks only at about 
1,000 J/kg and effective shear values will be nerfed after the 
subtraction of the boundary layer (50 kts end up closer to 25 
knots). The LLJ is weak and pointed farther west than usual. 

The 22Z SSCRAM suggests less than a 5% chance of severe hail or
wind overnight. That might be a little low, but it's got the 
right idea. Have PoPs peaking near 30% at 6am in the SW 1/4th of
the CWA before wrapping up by 9AM. Omaha, Norfolk, and points 
north and east should remain dry. 

.SATURDAY...

The remainder of Saturday will be dry with sunny skies by noon.
As the sfc pressure axis pushes through, light northerly winds 
will slowly become easterly by midnight. It'll be a great day 
to get some yard work done. Darn it. 

.SUNDAY...

PoPs 45% (west) return on Sunday with a shortwave rounding the 
H5 ridge. Most will remain dry, but with the associated cloud 
cover, temps will slip by about 5 degrees. PoPs 40% (south) to
70% (north) climb higher after midnight, when 00Z guidance 
suggests a convective complex pushes through SD in the evening 
and into eastern Nebraska / western Iowa before sunrise Monday 
morning. 

.NEXT WEEK... 

The busy pattern continues. To date, OAX has issued its fourth 
most t-storm warnings this year (PoR 1986). 

Transient ridging ahead of a cutoff low traversing the Prairie
provinces allows temps to climb a bit for Monday and Tuesday.
That low's attendant cold front pushes through on Tuesday 
afternoon. This will bring another 40% chance of overnight 
thunderstorms thanks to the stalled front and isentropic upglide
provided by the LLJ. 

12Z global models suggest regular chance of precip and thunder
through the work week as the area remains on the periphery of 
the southern high pressure dome. Looking for some change to hang
your hopes on? All three deterministic global models develop 
zonal flow by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to track
southeast across the forecast area this morning, following an
enhanced area of theta-e 850-700mb. Forcing appears to be a
combination of isentropic ascent enhanced by a shortwave
rotating around the base of eastern Canadian H5 trough. Though
convection may linger through 15-16z across southwestern part of
the forecast area, the CAMS keep convection west of all TAF
sites. Thus, except for a small window of -SHRA/-RA at KLNK
through 13/14z, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all three
TAF sites through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Fortin