FXUS63 KOAX 200528
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost
  for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Surface high pressure was building in late this evening with clouds 
slowly, but surely starting to clear out of the area. Winds will 
also become quite light as the high passes over, setting up what 
looks to be a chilly night. Latest guidance suggests fairly 
widespread 30s, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA 
dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Expect frost development in much 
of this area with potential for a few spots getting below freezing. 
A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM.

The surface high will push to our east through the day on Wednesday 
as some weak shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest 
ejects eastward toward the area. This will lead to increasing cloud 
cover and perhaps a few sprinkles or showers in portions of 
northeast NE, but they likely won't amount to much more than a few 
hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cooler 
side, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Another bit of shortwave 
energy will slide through southern portions of the forecast area 
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in better agreement 
that we see some showers and perhaps an isolated storm with this, 
mainly near and south of I-80 (30-50% chance).

Meanwhile, a trough will be digging into the western CONUS out of 
Canada and eventually push east into the forecast area late Thursday 
night into Friday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we'll 
see widespread rainfall with this system on Friday (60-80% chance), 
but still some differences on exact track and resulting rainfall 
amounts. Consensus currently suggests most places see a few tenths 
at most.

Warmer, drier air will move in behind this system as it departs on 
Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to 
lower 70s. We'll warm further on Sunday and Monday as the trough 
axis pushes to our northeast and ridging starts to build in. Expect 
upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday followed by widespread 80s Monday into 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are set to continue through the next 24 hours,
with winds quieting down to near or less than 5 kts and turning
increasingly northeasterly. From there, Winds will stay pretty
steady direction-wise, increasing to 5-10 kts while a SCT deck
of clouds develops at FL035 during the afternoon hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen