FXUS63 KOAX 162248 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 548 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire area from late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Temperatures could be as low as 29 degrees by Saturday morning. - There is a low chance (20-40%) of fog Saturday morning. With freezing temperatures possible, slick spots may develop, especially on area bridges and overpasses. - Warmer temperatures return late this weekend through next week. Dry conditions continue with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms not anticipated until later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 My previous discussion from earlier this week was talking about the Summer-like temperatures and this discussion will focus on our potential first freeze of the Fall season. It appears to be a tale of two seasons. The large upper-level low pressure that brought us the much colder temperatures continues to slowly move off to the northeast. On the backside of the low, a tight pressure gradient is resulting in gusty north winds late this morning into this afternoon. Due to continued cold-air advection, temperatures struggle to warm into the 50s with a wind chill in the 40s. Thankfully the winds do not linger. Surface high pressure begins to settle into the area this evening, causing winds to become light in response. With the center of the surface high pressure over the region Saturday morning and clear skies, our coldest temperatures so far this season develop. Widespread near and below-freezing temperatures are anticipated with a low chance (10-20%) a few localized areas reaching a hard freeze (28 degrees or less). Due to these temperatures, the entire area is under a Freeze Warning from late tonight into Saturday morning. Outside of the temperatures, the light winds should allow for frost development. In addition, enough lingering moisture may result in patchy, shallow fog. While visibility reductions should be minor, this fog could cause a thin glaze of ice to form on elevated surface, especially bridges and overpasses. That said, this threat is low (20-40% chance), but use caution on your morning drive. The cold weather remains short-lived as upper-level ridging resumes Saturday afternoon with increasing southwest winds. The increasing upper-level heights and warm southwest winds are forecast to help push temperatures back into the upper 50s to near 60, despite the cold start. This warming trend will continue into next week with dry conditions continuing. High temperatures climbing back into the 60s on Sunday, push 70 by Tuesday, and well into the 70s by mid-week. While our weather remains mostly quiet, an active pattern begins to take shape for the CONUS late next week. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge will slide east as long-wave troughing returns to the western CONUS. Within this troughing, several weaker shortwaves lift northeast throughout the week. These may result in a low chance of rain. Our next best chance of rain is not set to arrive until late in the week as another upper-level low pressure takes shape to our southwest. Showers and thunderstorms may be possible as this system approaches the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly clear skies expected overnight with winds out of the north weakening, becoming nearly calm by 06Z. Patchy fog may develop in low-lying areas but we don't anticipate any of this impacting the terminals. Winds increase out of the south Saturday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...McCoy