FXUS63 KOAX 151717
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at
  90%-100% through the morning.

- Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday 
  after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon.

- Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday
  morning with calm winds and clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers 
over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a
weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid
City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we
are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over 
Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas
northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as
the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper-
level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall
will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending
through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in
dry air.

Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential
for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of
Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains,
we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads
to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains
between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly
winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds 
gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning.
Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through
11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough 
shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty 
winds will likely continue until around 6pm. 

With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler 
Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong
radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We
expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly
widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool 
enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha, 
Council Bluffs, and Lincoln. 

As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS
over the weekend, we'll see southwesterly flow move back in
Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into 
next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A 
weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won't be 
enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through
the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early 
next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it 
approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to-
mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings 
our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next 
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain bands continue to move across the region early this
afternoon, resulting in visibility reductions to IFR or MVFR
levels. IFR ceilings persist for another couple of hours at the
terminals, with ceilings improving to MVFR around mid-afternoon
as the rain tapers off. Expect winds generally out of the north
to northwest, remaining stead at 15-25kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...ANW