FXUS66 KMTR 221914 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1214 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages continue through the next week - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Today and tonight) The skies are generally clear for now with patches of stratus in favored locations and some high level clouds continuing to stream across the interior. Offshore, a blob of cooler air lurks offshore, evidenced by a robust stratus deck set up off the North Bay and the San Mateo Peninsula. Through the rest of the night, this stratus deck is expected to expand to the coastal areas and build inland through the post-sunrise hours when the stratus will begin to gradually clear out. The region remains under the influence of the balance between a cutoff low located around 200 miles west of Cape Blanco along the southern coast of Oregon, and an upper level ridge with an axis extending along the crest of the Rocky Mountains. Altogether this pattern will result in temperatures which are near to slightly below the seasonal averages, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 90s in the inland valleys, the middle 90s into the triple digits for the warmest interior spots, especially the southern tier of Monterey County, across the 70s for areas near the Bays, and the 60s for areas along the Pacific coast. The marine layer remains relatively stable at around 1000-1500 feet, with warm and dry conditions persisting above the marine layer inversion as relative humidity values reach the 10-30% range. Winds remain relatively light and develop in an onshore flow pattern, with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Sunday through Friday) More of the same pattern is anticipated for the rest of the week's forecast, with a generally southwesterly upper level flow over the region as the series of eastern Pacific troughs continues to balance the ridge over the Desert Southwest. High temperatures are expected to hover around the upper 70s to the lower 90s for the inland valleys and the middle 60s to upper 70s near the Bays, with a subtle drop in the temperatures in the early part of next week before the ridge tries to build back towards the west. As noted by the previous forecaster, a couple of broad low pressure areas to the south of Baja California could develop into tropical systems sometime within the 7-day outlook, and how those systems interact with the ridge is highly uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the afternoon with diurnally influenced and moderate onshore flow. The OAK sounding from this morning measured the marine layer at a depth of 1500 feet which is consistent with the past couple of nights. However, due to dry air entrainment, stratus has been patchy through the morning and will continue to remain so through the TAF period. That being said, as the upper level low moves northeastward, high pressure continues to creep in which will slightly compress the marine layer. The combination of dry air entrainment and slight compression will limit stratus expansion into the interior East and South Bay valley terminals. At sites where stratus develops, ceilings are expected to remain IFR to MVFR. Low to medium confidence on the exact arrival of stratus, though generally expect a later onset. North Bay terminals may experience a weak, short-lived offshore flow overnight whichwill further delay IFR stratus development and shorten its duration. As a result, low confidence on whether the marine layer will reach APC. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions with moderate westerlies are forecast through the day. The increased pressure gradient will result in gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and winds ease around sunset. The marine layer is expected to be deep enough to reach SFO overnight, but it is a matter of when. Medium confidence on the exact timing as ceilings may develop a few hours earlier than forecast (09-12Z Sunday). Stratus should have a similar clearing time of 17-18Z Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus may be more patchy in nature early morning Sunday. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clear skies with a few high clouds prevail through the afternoon with onshore winds around 10 to 15 kt. The offshore stratus feed continues to look messy, therefore a later stratus arrival is forecast this TAF period with medium confidence. IFR ceilings will impact both terminals overnight and persist through the middle of Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds increase to a fresh to strong breeze with slight to moderate seas. Near gale force gusts are possible across the coastal waters, particularly near Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist today for the bay and coastal waters. Conditions are expected to improve by Sunday night into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea