FXUS66 KMTR 220701 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1201 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages continue through the next week - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Today and tonight) The skies are generally clear for now with patches of stratus in favored locations and some high level clouds continuing to stream across the interior. Offshore, a blob of cooler air lurks offshore, evidenced by a robust stratus deck set up off the North Bay and the San Mateo Peninsula. Through the rest of the night, this stratus deck is expected to expand to the coastal areas and build inland through the post-sunrise hours when the stratus will begin to gradually clear out. The region remains under the influence of the balance between a cutoff low located around 200 miles west of Cape Blanco along the southern coast of Oregon, and an upper level ridge with an axis extending along the crest of the Rocky Mountains. Altogether this pattern will result in temperatures which are near to slightly below the seasonal averages, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 90s in the inland valleys, the middle 90s into the triple digits for the warmest interior spots, especially the southern tier of Monterey County, across the 70s for areas near the Bays, and the 60s for areas along the Pacific coast. The marine layer remains relatively stable at around 1000-1500 feet, with warm and dry conditions persisting above the marine layer inversion as relative humidity values reach the 10-30% range. Winds remain relatively light and develop in an onshore flow pattern, with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Sunday through Friday) More of the same pattern is anticipated for the rest of the week's forecast, with a generally southwesterly upper level flow over the region as the series of eastern Pacific troughs continues to balance the ridge over the Desert Southwest. High temperatures are expected to hover around the upper 70s to the lower 90s for the inland valleys and the middle 60s to upper 70s near the Bays, with a subtle drop in the temperatures in the early part of next week before the ridge tries to build back towards the west. As noted by the previous forecaster, a couple of broad low pressure areas to the south of Baja California could develop into tropical systems sometime within the 7-day outlook, and how those systems interact with the ridge is highly uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 938 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR prevails except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. An area of cooler near surface air will arrive from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning resulting in a return of stratus, fog /IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle. Vicinity of SFO...It's VFR except cooler surface air will arrive overnight, this will support redevelopment of stratus /IFR/. VFR returns 18z Saturday. West wind 10 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. West wind increasing to 20 to 28 knots Saturday afternoon to mid Saturday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Erosion of stratus is still taking place to the northwest across the Monterey Bay however orographic upslope cooling of air parcels upon arrival vicinity KMRY is occurring supporting a scattered to broken stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceiling. Stratus /IFR/ is forecast to reach KSNS tonight and Saturday morning. Wildfire smoke so far is aloft. A few patches of drizzle are possible tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR- VFR late Saturday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns Saturday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea