FNUS75 KMSO 221855
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Cherry Peak Fire
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1255 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on August 22. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
MDT SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Red Flag Warning in effect from 5 PM today into 6 AM
Sunday for dry lightning and risk of strong outflow winds. Outflow
wind threat during this evening. 

209...Hazy, warm, and dry conditions thus far today. Winds have
been from the southeast, with gusts of 10-15 mph. Humidity has
been in the low-20s. 

Clearing skies this afternoon will set the stage for atmospheric
instability and showers and thunderstorms to develop by this
evening. A disturbance moving eastward across the Pacific
Northwest will provide lift for thunderstorm development with
storms moving towards the fire from the southwest. Scattered
thunderstorms will approach the fire starting around 5 PM, with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms continuing through
early Sunday morning. Outflow winds and lightning are the primary
storm threats, with peak gusts of 30-50 mph with thunderstorm
activity. 

On Sunday, elevated fire weather is expected following the passage
of a cold front. Wind is the main concern as gusts reach 20-30 mph
during the afternoon. 

.REST OF TODAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight 
  chance of thunderstorms. 
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...Less than 10 percent. 
* Chance Lightning....20 percent. 
* Max Temperature.....80-85. 
* Min Humidity........19-24 percent. 
* Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 5-7 mph becoming southwest 6-10 
  mph by mid-afternoon. 
* Mixing Height.......9500 ft agl decreasing to 5500 ft agl late in 
  the afternoon. 
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 10 mph. 
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches. 

.TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms 
  in the evening. Chance of rain showers. Slight chance of 
  thunderstorms overnight. 
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...Less than 10 percent. 
* Chance Lightning....25 percent. 
* Min Temperature.....55-60. 
* Max Humidity........55-60 percent. 
* Wind (20 ft)........South 5-7 mph shifting to the southwest 8-9 
  mph overnight. 
* Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl decreasing to 500 ft agl early in 
  the evening. 
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 10 mph. 
* Precip Amount.......0.01 inches. 

.SUNDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny. 
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...0 percent. 
* Chance Lightning....0 percent. 
* Max Temperature.....68-73. 
* Min Humidity........28-33 percent. 
* Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 3-6 mph in the morning becoming
  west-southwest 10-15 mph in the afternoon with gusts of 20-30
  mph. 
* Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl increasing to 7000 ft agl in the 
  afternoon. 
* Mixing Winds........West 15 mph. 
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches. 

$$
Forecaster...Lukinbeal
Requested by...Britteny Allestead
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619977.5/MSO
.DELDT 08/22/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL trevor.unsworth@usda.gov,wade.bache@usda.gov,mtmdc@firenet.gov,2026.cherrypeak.plans@firenet.gov