FXUS64 KMRX 152033
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Record heat is expected today with warm temperatures continuing 
into Friday. 

- Rain chances return Friday into Friday night, especially in 
northern areas, as a front arrives from the west. 

- Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first
  frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia,
  and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A
  warming trend will follow. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Currently, ridging is centered to our east with a weak low and 
stationary frontal boundary located to our north. Some shower 
activity has continued to our north with low-end rain chances in 
southwest Virginia. Otherwise, record high temperatures are expected 
again today with the records and year of occurrence listed below: 

Record highs Today: 
Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville     Tri-Cities      Oak Ridge 
                 
10-15   85(1950)       87(1897)       83(1971)       83(2021)  

Similarly warm temperatures are expected tonight with the system to 
the north deepening as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes by 
morning. The frontal boundary associated with the system will 
approach from the west through the day ahead of a Canadian high. 
Moisture will be sufficient for low-end rain chances but limited 
based on moisture and fast timing. The front will move through the 
area by Friday night, bringing northwesterly flow and much cooler 
temperatures to the region by Saturday. With lingering low-level 
moisture, PoPs will persist over the mountains and foothills into 
the daytime. With 850mb temperatures reaching near to below 0 
Celsius some mix with snow is possible across the highest peaks. 
Otherwise, a breezy day with highs in the 50s is expected for most 
of the region. 

Saturday night into Sunday morning, the high will be centered just 
to our north and east with subsidence, leading to strong radiational 
cooling conditions. The first frost of the year is very likely for 
Plateau, northeast Tennessee, and the Tennessee/North Carolina 
mountains at a minimum. By Sunday, height rises are expected as 
troughing moves off to the east, allowing temperatures to rise back 
into the 60s. Another cool morning is expected on Monday with 
continued subsidence. High pressure will remain in place for the 
middle of the week with gradual height rises promoting a continued 
warming trend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected with southerly to
southwesterly winds and some clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet
AGL. A few showers are possible north of TRI but no impact
expected at the terminal. Overnight, light and variable winds are
expected with patchy fog possible for some. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  83  50  62 /   0  10  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  82  49  59 /   0  30  40   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  81  48  59 /   0  10  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  80  45  55 /   0  50  70  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW