FXUS64 KMRX 151730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Another hot day today with record highs possible. 

- A few showers possible north today, with more showers expected 
Friday afternoon through evening.

- Frost is possible Saturday night, and to a lesser extent on
  Sunday night. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge remains centered over the Southeast. At 
the surface, a stalling boundary is stretched over Kentucky and west 
Tennessee. Currently, showers and storms are present upstream along 
the aforementioned boundary. CAMs have this line dissipating before 
or as it moves into our region but a few stray showers are possible 
mainly near the Upper Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia. 
Today, the front will lift north but a few showers will be possible 
mainly in Southwest Virginia. Today will be hot again with highs in 
the 80s. All three climate sites are forecast to break or tie the 
record high today. CHA and TRI broke their record highs yesterday 
(Wed). 

Record highs Today: 
Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville     Tri-Cities      Oak Ridge 
                 
10-15   85(1950)       87(1897)       83(1971)       83(2021)  

Thursday night, a deep trough will move into the Midwest and into 
the Ohio Valley by afternoon. The surface low will move through the 
Great Lakes and into New England bringing a cold front through the 
Tennessee Valley in the late afternoon or early evening hours on 
Friday. Winds will be gusty Friday afternoon and evening with gusts 
up to 30 mph likely at times. The best chance for showers will be 
Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and along the East Tennessee 
mountains and foothills in the late afternoon and evening hours. 
Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected.

The weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the upper 50s 
and lower 60s Saturday. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in 
the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday 
and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee 
and the higher elevations. 

Early next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s by 
Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected with southerly to
southwesterly winds and some clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet
AGL. A few showers are possible north of TRI but no impact
expected at the terminal. Overnight, light and variable winds are
expected with patchy fog possible for some. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  63  82  50 /   0   0  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  66  82  50 /   0   0  40  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  63  81  48 /  10   0  20  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  62  80  47 /  10   0  70  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW