FXUS63 KMQT 191740 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures today through the rest of the work week. - Up to 35% chance of frost impacting the early portion of the growing season Friday AM. && .UPDATE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as the prior day's downward trend in the thunderstorm forecast for the early morning hours this morning proved correct with KMQT radar returns showing a broken line of showers with scattered thunder, mostly clustered in Baraga County and along the state line adjacent to Iron County as of 6Z. Elsewhere, fog is observed ahead of the cold front as moisture- rich easterly and southeasterly flow upslopes from Lake Michigan and upslopes towards the higher terrain of the west half. As the front mixes the boundary layer and winds shift to be out of the northwest, some low stratus and slight chances (mainly 15-30%) of lingering showers is forecast but fog is not expected to persist, so the Dense Fog Advisories will be allowed to gradually expire from west to east as originally intended. Otherwise, the main impactful weather will be the remnant gusty conditions and choppy waters creating conditions hazardous to small craft today and the potential for frost for the morning of the 22nd with the resumption of frost/freeze headlines as agricultural growing season approaches. Despite high pressure dominating the local weather pattern for the work week, cold advection in the wake of the passing trough results in 850mb temperatures being in the 25th percentile or lower relative to the climatology of 850mb temps for this time of year, translating to surface temperatures that are up to 5-10 degrees below normal. The LREF shows up to 35% chances of Friday morning's low falling to 36 or lower, with the NBM deterministic low around that temperature for much of the interior UP. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Quiet and benign weather follows the ongoing passage of a cold front for most of the remainder of the week. Isolated to scattered showers linger into today, however instability will likely be elevated and only briefly uncapped in the east/south-central for a few hours at best. Thunder is in the forecast, but strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs in the east half today will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, lower in the northwestern UP where mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. From there, the low departs to the northeast and high pressure over the Plains replaces it. This maintains over the Great Lakes through most of the work week yielding dry weather until the weekend. Lingering troughing aloft keeps colder northwest flow through Wednesday, resulting in temps between 5-15 degrees below normal; highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming pattern is then expected toward next weekend as mid level ridging slowly builds over the southeast and extends up into the Great Lakes. Another trough over the Rockies on Friday looks to move toward the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing back precip to the UP. Instability with this is lacking, so impactful strong to severe storms are not anticipated. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front that brought light precipitation to the area overnight has exited to the east. IFR conditions are currently being observed at CMX and IWD with MVFR conditions at SAW. Northwesterly winds behind the front will bring in drier air, resulting in ceiling and visiblity conditions improving at all sites this evening. CMX and IWD are expected to improve to MVFR tonight, with VFR conditions expected at all sites after sunrise on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A low pressure moves northeast over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior today. This tightens the pressure gradient and increases northeast winds over the west and north- central portions of the lake to 20-30 kts early this morning. As the low moves overhead, winds become northwest and strongest winds shift from the west half to the east as colder air moves in. Probabilities of gales to 35 kts are 25% or less, highest in the east this afternoon. Showers and storms are expected with this system into this morning, however severe storms are no longer expected. This rainfall will prolong fog over the east into this morning. High pressure returns winds to 20 kts or less by Wednesday afternoon, winds likely maintain light into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ248- 250. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...RM MARINE...77