FXUS63 KMPX 231657
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota 
  Monday morning

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms likely Tuesday, a few strong
  storms possible during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A cool late-sumer night is developing under clear high pressure,
with highs falling into the upper 40s & low 50s across the area.
Patchy fog is possible in spots through sunrise, mainly along
the Minnesota River Valley & western Wisconsin. Similar
temperatures to saturday this afternoon with highs again in the
upper 70s, although winds will be much lighter with the high
pressure overhead.

The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow
returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks 
to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our 
next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture 
return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and 
considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance 
regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly 
low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks
possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance
generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to
the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the
region on Tuesday, but the general model timing brings the 
front through during the morning hours, which would mean that 
any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be 
limited. There are a few high-resolution models that are slower 
with the front, bringing it through during the late afternoon &
evening. Should this slower timing occur, we could see a few 
strong or severe thunderstorms along the front with CAPE values
reaching 1000-1500 J/kg during the afternoon along with 30-40 
kts of deep shear. Showers & thunderstorms during the morning 
could always lead to reduced instability & a lower chance of 
afternoon storms as well.

Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week
with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. 
Ensemble guidance suggests we could get into a more active 
pattern over the weekend as a train of shortwaves passes over 
the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Satellite captures another afternoon of blossoming Cu across
eastern MN and western WI, so have increased to SCT-BKN
coverage at MSP/STC/RNH/EAU. Winds are much less intense than
yesterday afternoon. Showers and a few storms are forecast to
develop across the eastern Dakotas overnight, however there is
strong agreement that precipitation will remain west of AXN &
RWF. VFR high clouds (10k+ feet) associated with the convection
will overspread the region from west to east heading into 
Monday morning. Patchy ground fog between 11-13z appears 
possible at RNH/EAU and a TEMPO for brief visibility reductions 
may be needed in a forthcoming TAF issuance. Winds turn 
southeasterly by daybreak at all sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Strus