FXUS63 KMPX 221706
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Pleasant this weekend with seasonable temperatures.

-Low chances for thunderstorms overnight Sunday, & again on 
 Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A pleasant & quiet weekend is expected as high pressure
continues to settle over the Upper Midwest. Mostly sunny skies 
are expected both Saturday & Sunday with highs generally in the 
upper 70s to around 80, while lower dew points will make for 
comfortable late-August conditions. Northwest winds will become 
breezy this morning with gusts around 20-25 mph before winds
diminish after sunset. Lighter winds return Sunday as the 
surface high moves overhead. Clear skies & light winds will also
allow for good radiational cooling at night, with lows 
generally in the 50s and a few upper 40s possible across the 
typical cooler locations of central Minnesota & western 
Wisconsin.

The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow
returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks 
to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our 
next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture 
return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and 
considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance 
regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly 
low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks
possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance
generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to
the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the
region on Tuesday, but current model timing consensus brings the
front through during the early morning hours, which would mean
that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be 
limited. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through 
next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to 
low 60s. Overall, were looking at a fairly quiet & seasonable 
stretch of late- August weather over the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Generally clear sky VFR over most of the period. Some diurnal 
cumulus this afternoon, but coverage should keep us VFR. Ample 
mixing will allow for gusty winds this afternoon up to around 20
to 25 knots. Winds will calm along the usual diurnal curve this
evening into the following morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC