FXUS63 KMPX 200804
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool & dry today into Friday

- Next chance for showers & thunderstorms comes Friday 
  afternoon into Saturday.

- Warmer for the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend 
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Clear skies & calm winds are resulting in a chilly night across
much of the region, with areas of frost expected until sunrise.
Recent rains have also resulted in some patchy shallow fog & 
mist to develop across west-central Minnesota, again expected 
to clear up after sunrise. Otherwise no weather concerns of 
note until later on Friday with seasonably cool temperatures in 
the 60s expected for the next few afternoons.

Our next chance for rain is expected Friday afternoon through
Saturday as a shortwave trough digs along the US-Canada border.
Enough instability will be present ahead of the system Friday
afternoon & evening to likely generate some thunder, along with
most of the rainfall from this system. Lighter rain showers 
will likely linger through saturday as the system exits the 
region off to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts Friday night 
look to be on the order of 0.5-1" across western Minnesota, 
decreasing to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin.

The Memorial Day weekend gets off to a cool & cloudy start with
some light showers/drizzle lingering through the day on 
Saturday & temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s. Warmer
& sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend 
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday & mid 80s likely on 
Monday. We'll have to monitor the potential for a weak upper 
level disturbance bringing a chance for thunderstorms sometime 
Sunday night into Monday, but these chances look to mainly 
limited to southern Minnesota.

More summer-y conditions are expected for next week as ensemble
guidance highlights multiple days with temperatures in the 80s,
or around 10 degrees above normal for the end of May. No major 
systems or widespread chances for rain are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Clear skies early this morning with west-northwesterly 
winds around 5kts becoming light and variable this afternoon. Did 
toss in a tempo at AXN for a potential of MVFR BR between 8-12z this 
morning. Few to Sct high-level clouds develop this afternoon but 
otherwise, should be nice day to take to the skies. 

KMSP...No additional concerns. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. 
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. 
SAT...MVFR/-RA early. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown-
     Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui 
     Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Polk-
     Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dunleavy