FXUS63 KMPX 200535
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1235 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost overnight, especially across western and  
  central Minnesota.

- Seasonably cool & dry weather persists through mid-week.

- Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Current observations highlight spotty sprinkles/drizzle thanks
to the lingering stratus deck. High temperatures will top out 
in the low to mid 50s with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. It
will feel much closer to late March than late May. Skies will 
gradually break up this through the evening with clearing skies 
likely overnight as a surface high pressure moves in. Northwest 
winds will turn light and variable overnight. The combination of
light winds and mostly clear skies should allow our 
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of 
western and central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory goes in effect 
tonight through early Wednesday morning given the likelihood of 
areas of frost across western and central MN. What about a 
Freeze Warning if my low temperature is 30? Sub- freezing 
temperatures are possible tonight, especially across central MN,
but the residence time below freezing shouldn't be long enough 
to experience a proper freeze. This is why we went with a Frost 
Advisory versus a Freeze Warning. Temperatures should remain a 
few degrees warmer across E/S MN and W WI, helping prevent any 
meaningful frost formation. Temperatures rebound into the mid to
upper 60s on Thursday as southeasterly winds set up in the 
return flow across the Upper Midwest. 

Our attention then turns to the holiday weekend. Our next chance
for any meaningful precipitation arrives Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning. Precipitation is tied to a shortwave tracking
along the US- CAN border. While there could be some embedded 
thunderstorms with this system, the general pattern doesn't 
appear favorable for meaningful severe weather chances. The 
remainder of Memorial Day weekend should be pleasant. 
Temperatures rebound into the 80s Sunday and Monday with limited
precipitation chances. Guidance solutions remain varied with 
precipitation chances Sunday/Monday, but nothing that would 
imply a washout or even a disruption to outdoor plans. Warmer, 
Summer-like temperatures will stick around for the first half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Clear skies early this morning with west-northwesterly 
winds around 5kts becoming light and variable this afternoon. Did 
toss in a tempo at AXN for a potential of MVFR BR between 8-12z this 
morning. Few to Sct high-level clouds develop this afternoon but 
otherwise, should be nice day to take to the skies. 

KMSP...No additional concerns. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. 
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. 
SAT...MVFR/-RA early. Wind E 5-10kts. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown-
     Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui 
     Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Polk-
     Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Dunleavy