FXUS63 KMPX 190610
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. A few could
  become strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota 
  into western Wisconsin. The overall risk has decreased.

- Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return at the
  start of Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

All is quiet to start the day as the surface low pressure sits 
almost directly over the Twin Cities. Widespread stratus and 
patchy fog spread out on the north and west side of the low, 
limiting temperatures from warming this afternoon. The cold 
front is essentially draped along the I-35 corridor south of the
Twin Cities, while the warm front extends east from the Twin 
Cities slightly north of I-94. Expect scattered showers to 
develop across the Central Plains this afternoon, and spread 
north into MN and WI through the evening. The heaviest rainfall
and best chance for thunder will be around 8pm to 12am. The 
best environment for thunder, and potentially a strong to 
severe storm, will be in that warm sector east of the cold front
and south of the warm front (i.e. east of I-35 and south of 
I-94). Overall the threat has decreased due to limited 
instability (noted by the 1630z update to the SPC Day 1 SWO). 
The main threat will be large hail and strong winds, as well as 
localized flash flooding anywhere that thunderstorms train for 
several hours.

Light rain will wrap up Tuesday morning as the upper level wave 
pushes east. At the surface, breezy northwest winds will develop
and strong CAA will keep temperatures about 10-15 degrees below
normal. Additional showers may develop as the cold air advects 
in, though saturation will be very limited throughout the 
profile.

Mostly quiet weather will persist until this weekend as a
shortwave develops over the Northern Plains. This will provide
us with a few chances for rain, though ensemble QPF is mostly 
around a few tenths and in the range of a normal rain event for 
this time of year. In other words, Memorial day weekend will 
have occasional rain, but nothing to change plans over at this 
time. Temperatures will also be gradually rising throughout the 
week, peaking on Monday with widespread highs in the 80s 
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Showers continue to make their way gradually to the 
northeast. AXN, RWF, STC should remain dry for the rest of the night 
while RNH and EAU should be clear by 10-12z. Cigs will be slow to 
improve today. All sites will start out in either IFR/LIFR 
categories prior to sunrise and then increasing to MVFR by 13-15z 
timeframe. As of now, cigs look to not return to low VFR until 23-
00z this evening. Winds will continue to be breezy today out of the 
NW at or about 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts before decreasing 
this evening. 

KMSP...Light rain showers expected to clear MSP by 09z. IFR cigs 
expected to linger for the rest of the night but should return back 
into low MVFR by about 15z. Winds will prevail out of the NW at or 
about 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts for much of today. Winds 
decrease this evening with low VFR cigs returning around 02z 
timeframe. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. 
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dunleavy