FXUS63 KMPX 181206
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. Can't rule 
  out a few strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota 
  into western Wisconsin.

-Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A few remnants showers & thunderstorms will linger over the 
area towards sunrise, but all of the active weather has moved 
well off to our east overnight. Cloud cover is expected to stick
around through much of the day today, & cool northeast winds 
mean that temperatures may struggle to warm much out of the 50s
& low 60s across much of central Minnesota. Farther east, 
portions of western Wisconsin will still remain ahead of the 
surface low/cold front & temperatures could reach the 70s this 
afternoon along with muggier dew points in the 60s.

We'll stay dry for much of the day today, but another round of 
showers thunderstorms is expected to spread northeastwards out 
of the central plains this evening. We should north of the 
prime environment for severe weather across KS/NE/IA, but will 
have to watch just how far north a corridor of weaker surface-
based instability can make it into far-southern Minnesota & 
western Wisconsin this evening. Expect scattered showers to 
quickly spread northwards across MN & WI during the early 
evening, with the heaviest rainfall & best chance for thunder 
coming between8 PM to midnight. Can't rule out a few strong to 
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts across these areas,
but otherwise we're just expecting your typical spring showers 
with a few rumbles of thunder at time. The most widespread 
concentration of thunderstorms, & heaviest rainfall amounts, are
expected from southern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin 
where rainfall amounts of 1-2" are likely. Elsewhere, the 
showers will be lighter & more sporadic so only expecting 
rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5". The showers & 
thunderstorms will continue on & off through the night, ending 
from west to east around sunrise.

Much cooler weather arrives after the rain with temperatures
struggling to warm out of the 50s Tuesday. Strong cyclonic flow
& colder temperatures aloft will likely create a prime
environment for isolated diurnally-driven showers during the
afternoon, but rainfall amounts from these will be light. May
need to monitor the potential for another frost/freeze 
Wednesday morning if clouds are able to clear out overnight & 
the radiational cooling potential is maximized. Seasonably cool 
& dry weather continues through Thursday with another chance 
for showers & thunderstorms looking likely Friday into 
Saturday. Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms look 
possible over the Memorial Day weekend, but it won't be a 
washout of a weekend. Temperatures return to more seasonable 
values Friday into saturday, & could warm into the 80s Sunday & 
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Predominately MVFR/IFR this period with SHRA/TSRA chances 
later this afternoon and evening. A line of showers between RNH and 
EAU will continue to move off to the NE. Cigs are expected to 
remain in either low MVFR and IFR through much of this forecast 
period. Surface low pressure centered over MSP is creating 
variable winds across all sites currently however winds ware 
expected to become NW'ly later this morning into the early 
afternoon. Did update previously stated prob30s to tempo groups 
where rain and thunder appeared most likely later this afternoon
and evening. Precip should wrap up early tomorrow morning. 

KMSP...Not much change since the previous TAF issuance. VFR cigsare 
expected to fall to MVFR/IFR heights and linger there for much of 
the period. Converted and tightened up the previous prob30 mentions 
to a tempo for TSRA between 2 and 5z this evening. Variable 
winds will increase out of the NW between 5-10kts this morning 
with gusts eventually increasing to near 20kts after 10z 
tomorrow morning. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR cigs becoming VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. 
WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. 
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dunleavy