FXUS63 KMPX 161657 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1157 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds with gusts to 45 mph possible across western and southern MN this morning. - Subfreezing temperatures for southern MN and western WI tonight. - Elevated fire weather concerns this weekend, then temperatures turn back to above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Scattered showers are ongoing early this morning as a trough axis swings through. The showers are expected to end from northwest to southeast during the next few hours as the axis propagates away from the region. Clouds will clear Surface high pressure over the Rockies and northern Plains will continue to build south today. Gusty northwest winds have developed across western MN and will continue to spread southeast this morning. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some gusts to reach 45 mph, but low level lapse rates aren't dry adiabatic due to the lack of strong cold air advection. Therefore, such gusts will be more sporadic with 35-40 mph gusts more common. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and become light and variable this evening as high pressure builds to the central Plains. With the ridge axis overhead, clear skies, and light winds in place this evening, temperatures should drop quickly into the 30s. Frost formation is likely by late evening area wide. During the overnight hours, the high will shift to the southern Plains and return flow will increase, particularly across central and western MN. This should halt additional frost formation, and may keep temperatures from reaching freezing in those areas. Therefore, kept the Freeze Watch going across portions of central and western MN where winds should increase to around 10 kts late tonight. Farther south and east, winds should remain decoupled for much of the night and the likelihood of subfreezing temperatures is higher. Upgraded southern MN and western WI to a Freeze Warning. The urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro should keep temperatures above 32, but light winds and high RH with temps in the mid 30s should allow frost. Upgraded to a Frost Advisory there. With southwest winds increasing late tonight, temperatures are expected to make a rebound as early as tomorrow. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Breezy conditions with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and RH in the 30s will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, especially in areas that largely missed the soaking rain Thursday. A near repeat for Sunday, although temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60s. Next week will feature a ridge across much of the CONUS with troughs on the east and west coasts. Very quiet and mild weather will result and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s each day from Tuesday onward, or 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A weak short wave passing through Wednesday will bring a low chance for rain, with additional chances coming next weekend as the western long wave trough finally begins to approach. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Visible satellite trends over the last 2 hours show a rapid reduction in clouds, especially across central and northern Minnesota. This clearing will spread south this afternoon, resulting in widespread clear skies and VFR conditions for the rest of the period. Strong northerly winds continue to start the period, though will quickly drop this afternoon and become light and variable by this evening for most locations. Winds will shift out of the southwest by tomorrow morning, becoming gusty again tomorrow afternoon. KMSP...Clouds may clear earlier than 21z. Northwest winds gust to 30 kts for the first hour of the TAF, then gusts are expected to weaken and become less frequent through the afternoon. Winds become light and variable by 02-03z, and then increase out of the southwest after sunrise tomorrow. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker- Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Nicollet- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka- Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington. WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...BED