FXUS63 KMKX 230457
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated waterspout or two are possible over Lake Michigan
  through tonight. 

- Dry and pleasant conditions into the beginning of next week.
  
- Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday along with
  warmer and more humid conditions. 


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Tonight through Monday:

Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints are 
expected tonight as high pressure builds in, with lows a few 
degrees below normal in the low 50s most places. Quiet weather 
will then continue Sunday and Monday as the high gradually 
builds overhead. A drier and cooler airmass is expected through 
this period with temperatures a couple to a few degrees below 
normal along with lower humidity. Mostly clear skies will 
persist Sunday and Monday, aside from some late morning and 
afternoon cumulus each day. 

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Tuesday through Saturday: 

Surface low pressure is expected to pass by to the north Tuesday
night into Wednesday, along with an associated cold front and 
shortwave. This system will likely bring shower and storm 
chances back to southern Wisconsin Tue evening into Wednesday. 
There is disagreement among models with the exact timing of the 
stronger forcing, which would impact the strength of any storms 
given typical diurnal instability trends. Models are showing a 
moderate amount of shear with this system, so a few stronger 
storms aren't out of the question if the timing is right to tap 
some higher instability during the daytime hours. Warmer temps 
and higher dewpoints are expected to return during this time 
period as well under breezy southerly winds ahead of the 
approaching low.

Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under 
surface high pressure. Could see a few diurnal showers though as
a few weak impulses move through the the persistent cyclonic 
flow aloft. A stronger shortwave is then anticipated arrive Sat
per latest models, bringing shower/storm chances back to 
southern Wisconsin. Near normal temperatures are likely for the
second half of the week.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected tonight into 
early Sunday as high pressure builds in. Scattered VFR cumulus 
and modest northwest winds are likely late Sunday morning into 
the afternoon. Could see a lake breeze make an attempt at moving
inland tomorrow afternoon if offshore wind ease a bit. Light 
winds and mostly clear skies will then return for Sunday evening
and overnight. 

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Isolated showers and storms will remain possible over the lake 
tonight into at least early Sunday, with a small chance for an 
isolated waterspout through tonight. Otherwise, breezy north to 
northwest winds will persist into Sunday between deepening low 
pressure around 29.7 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and 
high pressure of 30.2 inches building in from the northwest. 
Winds will eventually become lighter by mid-day Monday, 
persisting into Tuesday as the high moves overhead. Breezy 
southerly winds will then develop later Tuesday into Wednesday 
as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low. 

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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