FXUS63 KMKX 161937 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Blustery north winds gusting to 40 MPH will linger this afternoon, mainly near the lakeshore. - High-end gale force winds are expected over Lake Michigan through this evening. A few waterspouts may occur as well, mainly over southern portions of the lake. - Temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 inland later tonight into early Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas, with a Frost Advisory in far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. - Southwest gales may occur Saturday night into Sunday night over far northern portions of Lake Michigan. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters Sunday into Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight through Sunday night: Scattered to numerous showers will linger this afternoon, as the backside of the southeastward-moving 500 mb shortwave trough shifts through the region. Forecast soundings are saturated in the low levels, with steep low level lapse rates and low freezing levels around 3000 to 4000 feet AGL. Thus, some graupel may occur at times with these showers. This activity should gradually dissipate by late afternoon and early evening, as drier air moves into the area via cold air advection on the gusty north winds. Some northerly gusts to 40 MPH may also occur mainly near the lake this afternoon, with the good low level mixing with the steep lapse rates. Skies should gradually clear out tonight, as the 500 mb trough shifts southeast and an axis of surface high pressure shifts into the region. This should also bring weakening winds, becoming light and variable overnight into early Saturday morning. This should allow for low temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees over most of the area, with lower 30s for far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. Thus, kept the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory going as is for later tonight into early Saturday morning. It may get into the middle 20s toward northwest parts of the area. Cover or bring indoors any sensitive plants. The high will gradually shift southeast of the region Saturday into Sunday night, with southwest winds developing. Northwest flow at 500 mb will become more zonal during this period as well. This should allow for dry conditions this weekend, with temperatures moderating from the middle 50s Saturday to the lower to middle 60s Sunday. Lows in the middle to upper 30s are forecast for Saturday night, but the southwest winds should remain high enough to limit most frost potential. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monday through Friday: 500 mb cluster analysis generally shows an anomalous 500 mb ridge developing somewhere over the Upper Midwest or Western Great Lakes regions by the middle to later portions of next week. This should allow for the surface high to gradually shift east northeast of the region during this period, keeping generally southerly winds over the area. This should result in steady warming of temperatures during the week, with ensemble members supporting highs well into the 60s to around 70 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps into the lower 70s inland Thursday into Friday. Ensemble members also show a dry period for most of the week. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Scattered to numerous showers will linger this afternoon, and some graupel may occur at times with these showers. This activity should gradually dissipate by late afternoon and early evening, as drier air moves into the area on gusty north winds. Skies should gradually clear out tonight, as an axis of surface high pressure shifts into the region. This should also bring weakening winds, becoming light and variable overnight into early Saturday morning. Temperatures near to below freezing are expected overnight into early Saturday morning. The high will gradually shift southeast of the region Saturday into Sunday night, with southwest winds developing. This should allow for dry conditions this weekend. Southwest winds will develop on Saturday, with some gusts near 20 knots in the afternoon. These winds should linger into Sunday and become more gusty. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low pressure around 29.4 inches will continue to move well east of the region tonight, as strong high pressure around 30.6 inches remains over the Central Plains. North gales are expected to linger into this evening across Lake Michigan, before tapering off later tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan until 1 AM CDT Saturday morning, and until 10 PM CDT this evening for the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed after the Gale Warning expires into later tonight, for lingering gusty north winds and elevated waves. Scattered to numerous showers will linger into this evening across the lake, with a few thunderstorms and a waterspout possible over the south half of Lake Michigan. As the high shifts toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in south central Canada, shifting toward and into Hudson Bay on Sunday. This may bring southwest gales to far northern portions of Lake Michigan Saturday night into Sunday night. High pressure around 30.5 inches should develop east northeast of the region next week, bringing dry conditions and light to modest winds. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee