FXUS62 KMHX 220541 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 141 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisory and Severe Tstorm Watch cancelled earlier this evening A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of eastern NC through tomorrow morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An active pattern is expected through Saturday, including a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Forecast through tomorrow will be heavily dependent on various mesoscale features, which in turn will dictate where stronger storms and flooding will be focused. Fluctuation's in risk areas are likely as ongoing convective evolution is analyzed. Environment today has indeed been favorable for strong storms and torrential rainfall. Convection got an early start, developing as early as 11 AM and blossoming along the stalled frontal boundary, then compounding with convergent outflows and diurnal sound and sea breezes. Severe and flooding risk has decreased substantially for the rest of this evening, as outflows have worked over the environment bringing widespread convective inhibition to the region. Still. PWATs are impressive and moderate rainfall is occuring and expected to continue. The combination of lesser surface based instability and an anomalously moist airmass should continue to support the potential of 1-2"/hr rainfall rates. Continued rainfall chances tonight keep the Flood Watch in effect, but current radar trends suggest flooding threat is decreasing. Convective threat remains tomorrow as front remains stalled over the region. Like today, convection could get an early start as soon as 15z and spread inland through the afternoon. Shear will be quite a bit weaker and the severe threat will be less than 5%, but high forecast PWATS point to another day of efficient rainmakers and potential flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is low to moderate over the next 24 hours. An area of LIFR CIGs has recently developed across the coastal plain of ENC and this is expected to continue expanding north through the night. Guidance suggests that once LIFR conditions set in, they will stay in place through early Saturday morning. However, obs west of the coastal plain show a mix of VFR and LIFR conditions, suggesting the are of LIFR CIGs may be transient. For now the TAFs will reflect the more pessimistic scenario, with LIFR conditions holding on much of the night. One caveat is an area of light to moderate RA lifting north from near KILM. This may disrupt the low CIGs some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. On Saturday, CIGs are forecast to rise to MVFR levels, with VFR conditions potentially not returning until early Saturday evening. The TSRA risk is expected to remain low overnight for all TAF sites. The risk is then expected to increase after 11z/12z Saturday as an upper level wave lifts north through the area. The greatest TSRA risk is expected from KOAJ to KEWN, with a somewhat lower risk at KISO and KPGV. In light of this, I dropped the TSRA mention down from VCTS to PROB30 for those two sites. TSRA will be capable of LIFR/IFR VIS and gusty winds to 40kt. Outlook: A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the area on Sunday, but guidance now suggests it may stall along the coast through Monday. Should this occur, the TSRA risk would linger along the coast longer than previously forecast. However, even in that scenario, the risk may remain just east of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Local and regional observations show a frontal boundary has pushed south and stalled over area waters, orientated roughly from Ocracoke to the mouth of the Neuse River. Winds on either side ofthe boundary are around 10 kt with seas a subdued 2-3 feet. Main threat for marine interests through tonight and into tomorrow will be convection, especially overnight as a complex originating over SC progresses and begins to impact waters close to midnight. These storms will pose a risk of strong winds potentially exceeding 40 kt as well as waterspouts, especially for cells close to the frontal boundary. Outlook: An active thunderstorm pattern is expected to last into at least tomorrow, with a somewhat lower risk by Sunday and Monday. A more dominant southerly flow is expected to become established on Saturday and last into Sunday. A cold front then moves through late Sunday with a west to northwest wind shift. Seas build to 3-5ft on Saturday, then lay down to 2-3ft by late Sunday as winds also lay down. Light winds and reduced seas are then expected into the middle of next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ044-079-080- 090>092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/MS/RJ AVIATION...RM MARINE...RM/MS