FXUS62 KMHX 200744 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 344 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thursday's front has continued trending a bit later, reflected in the most recent forecast. Aviation section updated for 20/06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fog chances pick up early this morning for portions of eastern NC 2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue today. 3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...With a similar setup to the past couple nights, we are expecting low stratus and fog to spread over SW portions of the CWA this morning. Best chances are in Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north and east. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9 AM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low- level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Thursday afternoon. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses this afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain, but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s. This will fall a few degrees short of records, but is still around 10 degrees above normal for mid to late May. Thursday's front has trended later with this update, entering the region around 21-00Z. As a result, southerly flow should help us warm up Thursday as well, although sea breeze and increased cloud cover/rain chances may keep us a few degrees colder than today. Regardless, highs around 90 are expected inland. before the sea breeze cools us down. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft will provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze (the usual suspect spots over Dare County and Down East Carteret come to mind here) today. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast for today. Thursday we will have a bit more moisture to play with as the front approaches from the north. As a result, we may see some isolated to scattered convection along the sea breeze. Chance PoPs/PoTThunder are in the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening along the sea breeze. Where the sea breeze collides with the approaching cold front PoPs and QPF are maximized. KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some starting Thursday and into the weekend, allowing a front to drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling over NC. The front will likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held tonight, with the front not reaching our area from the north until late afternoon into the evening. Therefore, forecast highs will once again reach the 80s and 90s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre- storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as CAPE rises to 1000-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 20 kt. The odds of a stronger storm appear to be around 10% or less as of this afternoon, in line with CSU and NCAR ML guidance, but trends will continue to be monitored. The severe risk will likely be muted on Friday with the frontal boundary to our south or easterly winds decreasing instability, then return to a low- probability regime for Saturday. Beyond here, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief drops to LIFR are noted in Onslow and Duplin counties as of 7Z. Conditions are expected to worsen through the early morning hours in this region as we decouple and moisture builds near the surface. the expectation is for a more widespread VLIFR to IFR fog and low stratus to initiate in the Onslow Duplin area before slowly progressing north and east. Like the past two nights, it will struggle to get too far north and east, being contained to the SW zones. Locally dense fog will be possible. Worst conditions expected at OAJ, with ISO and EWN at the fringe of the fog and low stratus. PGV could see brief drops to MVFR around sunrise, but probs of anything worse are very low. Conditions improve quickly after 12z with VFR conditions then forecast through the rest of today once they improve. Light SW winds tonight increasing in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze as they shift to become southerly. Gusts behind the sea breeze could reach 15-20 knots. Wednesday night/Thursday, we will see another night of light to calm winds and substantial low level moisture, ushering in another night of sub-VFR probs. With the focus on this morning's impacts in the 6Z TAF cycle, elected to hold off on messaging Wednesday night's probs until the 12Z cycle. Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thu into the weekend. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through tomorrow afternoon, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast, where funneling could result in some brief periods of 25kt gusts in the afternoon. Seas will continue to hover around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday afternoon/evening, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front across the Ablemarle Sound and adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS/RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...MS/RJ