FXUS66 KMFR 191121
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
421 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation discussion updated. 

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs... There could be localized areas of 
LIFR/IFR in fog/low clouds near the coast or in the coastal valleys 
this morning as models are showing a stratus layer very close to the 
coast tonight. Any areas of lower flight conditions should clear 
during the morning. 

Tonight, a weak impulse will pass over the region, with a marine 
push possible through the overnight and early morning hours, which 
could produce MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities along the coast, in the 
coastal valleys, and into the Umpqua Basin, including at North Bend 
and Roseburg. 

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF 
period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1223 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026/ 

DISCUSSION...Upper level ridging will remain over the
northeastern Pacific, just offshore of the West Coast, throughout
the week. A few impulses are expected to ride up and over the
ridge, keeping the impacts well to our north up in Washington and
British Columbia, keeping southern Oregon and far northern
California dry and warm. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will remain 
along the southwest coast, keeping temperatures in the Brookings 
area on the warm side, and producing daily afternoon breezes 
across the region. 

As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will 
be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each 
day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall
fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH
values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise 
caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or 
flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this 
year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, 
but its especially important when we have these elevated fire
weather days.

Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to
break down this weekend, with the potential for a more robust 
trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that 
could bring precipitation chances and cooler temperatures to the 
forecast area. Model suites are not in solid agreement with this 
scenario, with several differences in both timing and strength, so
confidence is low. This will warrant a close eye for those with 
plans for the Memorial Day holiday. 

&&

MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026...A thermal 
trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas 
over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest 
and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through 
this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of 
Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Ensembles 
indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday with a 
potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the 
southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. 

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376. 

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. 

&&

$$