FXUS66 KMFR 162341 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 441 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...17/00Z TAFs...LIFR conditions have returned to the immediate coast this afternoon north of Cape Blanco and are gradually spreading south along the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through the evening and into Saturday morning. Visibilities are likely to improve late tonight/early Saturday morning as a weak front passes through the region, but ceilings are likely to remain IFR overnight, possibly lifting to MVFR after 15z Saturday. Some MVFR ceilings are likely to push into the Umpqua Basin around 10-13z Saturday morning, and could linger into early Saturday afternoon as this weak front moves through the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the area through the TAF period. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1248 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with today being the warmest * Elevated fire weather conditions for eastside areas and northern California through the weekend * Below normal temperatures for much of next week * Rainfall chances increase early next week with the coast having the highest probability for measurable amounts DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)... The upper level pattern is noted by a ridge of high pressure over the region. This ridge is helping maintain the well above normal temperatures we have been experiencing and will continue to see today. For example, Medford is forecast to reach ~86 for a high today which puts us about 16 degrees above normal. Yesterday we ended up being about 19 degrees above normal in Medford. The upper level high will move eastward tonight resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend, but still above normal by about 5-6 degrees. Additionally, as the high moves eastward, a dry cold front will pass through the region tomorrow. Its unlikely to see much--if any--rainfall but parts of Coos & Douglas County could see a few light rainfall showers that may squeeze out a trace to hundredth of an inch. A stronger system moves into the area on Monday. Model consensus stalls the system out over the Pacific right before moving inland becoming a cut-off low. Then a split flow pattern develops with this low sagging south from the main flow, and eventually making its way inland over southern California. This path is not favorable for rainfall for much of the forecast area. The coast will likely be the main area to see rainfall accumulation Mon/Mon night before the low sags south, but as the low sags south we could see wrap around moisture and rainfall develop over northern California and some eastside areas middle parts of next week. Westside valleys will likely miss out on much--if not all--of the rainfall associated with this system. Will need to reevaluate if the system changes trajectory, but at this time we are not anticipating this to be a heavy rainfall producer for the forecast area. Areas along and near the coast could see around tenth of an inch of rainfall Monday into Monday night. Then light amounts of upwards near a tenth for eastside areas through middle parts of the week. Overall, this is a low impact forecast, but the above normal temperatures and breezy wind speeds combined with low RH through the afternoon hours will lead to at least an elevated concern for fire weather conditions. This will likely be the biggest potential impact in the forecast if a fire starts. Fortunately, we are not seeing any significant wind speeds which should help limit fire spread if we happen to get any new fire starts. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub- advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through Saturday morning. North winds increase and a new swell arrives Saturday afternoon. This will result in steep to very steep seas which includes a Hazardous Seas Warning for much of the southern waters where wind speeds will be strongest, and conditions will be hazardous to small craft from areas around Cape Blanco northward to around Reedsport. Thereafter, a brief break is anticipated Sunday night, but Monday afternoon into Monday night, a west swell builds into the area which will likely lead to steep seas around 11 to 14 feet for much of the waters. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$