FXUS62 KMFL 200527 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. Heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the short term period, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA show a pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels. Water vapor imagery suggests this is dry air being pulled southward along the western periphery of the upper level low currently east of the Bahamas, and model guidance supports a continuation of this phenomenon at least through Thursday. In fact, most modeled PWATs within the ensemble guidance envelope are trending below average for this time of year, really highlighting the shift from conditions earlier in the week. With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each afternoon. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month). With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Easterly- southwesterly winds prevail, with the potential for SHRA/TSRA present at KAPF. AT KAPF, a Gulf breeze is forecast to develop in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally benign boating conditions will prevail as alight to moderate easterly breeze persists across the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, but will favor the Gulf waters under this easterly wind regime. Gustier winds and rough seas are possible in and around thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 89 79 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 89 74 90 75 / 20 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 78 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 88 76 89 77 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 79 87 79 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 86 78 87 78 / 20 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 90 78 91 79 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 88 79 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 78 87 79 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 91 74 91 76 / 70 30 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...ATV