FXUS64 KMEG 192306
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into this evening,
  with a Marginal Risk for damaging winds.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily into
  the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

- Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the
  lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

12Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge centered over
the Carolinas and a longwave upper-level trough stretching from
western Ontario back through Baja California. Late morning
surface analysis places a cold front from Lake Superior back to
western portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends over the past few hours
continue to show weakening of last night's convection over the
western half of Arkansas. Clouds increased along and west of the
Mississippi River with noon temperatures in the middle to upper
80s.

The aforementioned remnant convection is continuing to weaken as
it moves toward the Mid-South and a few showers have developed
over the past few hours. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based
CAPE values around 3000 J/kg, weak mid-level lapse rates, little
if any shear, and precipitable water values just above the 90th
percentile for late May. (1.7 inches) This parameter space
suggests a messy, pulse-type convective mode can be expected into
this evening with damaging winds being the primary threat with a
few storms. High freezing levels will limit the overall hail size
with any stronger storms. Confidence remains low for any
organized convective threat.

Little has changed from previous model runs as the weak cold
front will stall out across the Lower Mississippi Valley through
Thursday. This will bring a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms both days but overall instability will be less
favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Long
term model trends indicate the front will retreat back north as a
warm front Friday as an open wave trough moves into the Southern
Plains. This will bring continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms into the Memorial Day weekend and near normal
temperatures for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A tricky TAF set remains in this issuance, ahead of a cold front
and surface low. These features will bring off and on -TSRA and -
SHRA over the next 30 hours. CAMs tend to struggle with this
summertime-like pattern, especially with thunderstorms, therefore
PROB30 seemed to be the best way to handle the situation. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the early evening
hours before the surface low tracks in MVFR and intermittent IFR
conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable through the late morning hours before shifting
north/northeast behind the aforementioned cold front.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with
minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Shower and
thunderstorms are expected each day, especially during peak
heating, lasting into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH