FXUS64 KMAF 200706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
 
- Showers and storms are expected today beginning early this
  afternoon and continuing into this evening. Any strong to severe
  storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
  winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding. 

- Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as 
  additional disturbances move overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The cold front that moved through the area on Tuesday has washed out 
across the southern half of the region and will be one of the 
catalysts for convection during the day today. In addition to the 
front, plenty of moisture and instability will be available to help 
some storms become strong to severe. Forecast soundings continue to 
show plenty of shear, 1000-2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates 
favorable for large hail and damaging winds in the most organized 
storms. Hi-res ensembles show activity getting an early start on the 
day around or just afternoon with convection developing near the 
Davis Mountains/Pecos River Valley and moving east into the Permian 
Basin and Stockton Plateau. Coverage increases during the afternoon 
and some upscale growth into multicellular clusters or lines of 
storms may occur before exiting the region tonight after sunset. 
Daytime highs to the north of the stalled front will struggle to 
reach out of the 70s as low clouds keep temperatures from moving 
much. To the south and west of the front, mainly west of the Pecos
River, highs will reach into the 80s with 90s along the Rio 
Grande. 

Tonight sees a lull in convection as the daytime activity decays or 
moves off to the east. The dryline establishes itself west of 
Midland/Odessa near or just west of the TX/NM border. The dryline's 
position and any leftover boundaries from today will impact where 
any convection develops on Thursday. Coverage overall will be lower 
as the upper level support available for storms today will be weaker 
for Thursday. Similar to today though, large hail and damaging winds 
will be the primary hazards with any severe storms that develop. 
Localized flash flooding will also be possible, particularly from
Reagan County southward into eastern Pecos and portions of 
Terrell County that saw significant rainfall on Tuesday. Highs on 
Thursday remain below normal, but increase into the 80s for most. 

-Stickney


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday night sees activity once again decay and move off to the 
east of our area. Friday and through the weekend, a similar pattern 
continues where daytime convection will be dependent on where the 
dryline sets up in the CWA and the timing of any upper level 
disturbances that move in from the west. Medium to long range 
guidance shows this occurring roughly each day Friday through Sunday 
with a decrease in activity for Monday. Temperatures through the 
weekend will hover near or just below normal in the 80s to low 90s. 
Unsurprisingly, Rio Grande Village and the surrounding low Desert of 
Big Bend may still reach the century mark on those days, but 
temperatures will be otherwise unremarkable for late May. Given the 
isolated to scattered nature of each day's showers and storms, rain 
amounts will be tough to pin down. Rain chances continue evening 
into the middle of next week, but that portion of the forecast 
remains subject to change. 

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Easterly to southeasterly flow holds on across the area with
speeds around 10-15kts with occasional gusts around 20kts. MVFR
CIGs move in from the east between 10-12z and linger into the day
today. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  59  81  61 /  60  50  30  10 
Carlsbad                 82  59  90  60 /  30  30  10  10 
Dryden                   84  64  86  65 /  50  50  10  20 
Fort Stockton            83  61  88  63 /  50  50  20  10 
Guadalupe Pass           79  59  81  59 /  20  10   0   0 
Hobbs                    73  55  84  56 /  60  20  20  10 
Marfa                    85  52  82  50 /  40  20  20  20 
Midland Intl Airport     75  60  83  62 /  70  30  10  10 
Odessa                   75  60  84  63 /  70  30  10  10 
Wink                     80  60  88  61 /  50  30  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93