FXUS64 KMAF 160443 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1143 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through late Friday morning across much of west Texas. - A cold front today through Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. - Breezy northeasterly winds behind the cold front will occur tonight through Friday. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area radars show round #2 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #3 commencing around 20Z or so. KMAF radar bias has increased from below 1 to 1.21 over the past few hours, suggesting the airmass has transitioned from convective to tropical. This is further evidenced by heavy rainfall reported over the past few hours. Supporting this, the KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.68". The 100th percentile is 1.43", and the (now old) record is 1.47". Latest mesoanalysis shows a prefrontal trough moving through the area, with a cold front following this evening. W/drier air advecting in behind these features, best chances for convection tonight will be south of I-20. With the airmass having gone tropical, the current flood watch looks on track. Latest NBM/MOS suggest wind advisories are warranted over the higher terrain as the front moves south, and the high wind warning has been shortened temporally to end Friday evening. CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures yet this fall, with overnight minimums coming in ~ 5 F or less above climatology. Friday, showers are possible along and south of I-10, but will quickly diminish to the southwest as the front continues pushing south. CAA will be in full force, with highs a good ~ 15-20 F below normal, keeping all locations in the 50s and 60s. Friday night, as post-frontal gradients/winds relax under clearing skies, lows will drop a good 10 F or so from tonight, putting all locations in the 30s and 40s. The highest elevations of the Davis Mountains may even see a light freeze. This front will definitely brrrring in Fall proper. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cooler temperatures commence this weekend as surface high pressure centered over the Southern Great Plains reinforces cooler air behind the cold front. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 50s for most, with low 60s expected in a few locations. From Sunday onward, return flow and mostly sunny skies bring a warming trend. At this time, highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of next week. Low chances of rain (10-30%) return to the western half of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions expected everywhere but FST which will be MVFR thru around 12Z before lifting. Gusty NE winds to 30-35KT continue for much of the period. No SHRA/TS will affect the terminals. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 53 60 40 60 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 55 65 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 54 59 44 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 58 40 57 / 90 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 55 39 54 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 50 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 43 51 35 54 / 8040 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 59 41 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 54 59 41 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 56 63 41 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10