FXUS64 KLZK 240501 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi. SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY: A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night. MONDAY through SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas). Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR flight category is expected over the majority of the forecast period from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning across all TAF sites. A complex of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving across Arkansas from north to south across the state. However, coverage is not anticipated to be widespread, therefore TEMPO and PROB30 groups along with periods of VCTS and VCSH are introduced across all sites. If a TAF site does become directly impacted by a shower or thunderstorm, then VSBY may drop to MVFR or IFR. Surface wind gusts in excess of 30 knots have been introduced within the TEMPO and PROB30 groups. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 70 95 73 / 60 20 10 20 Camden AR 96 74 99 75 / 40 20 10 10 Harrison AR 85 69 92 71 / 80 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 93 74 100 75 / 40 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 90 74 100 77 / 80 20 10 10 Monticello AR 93 75 97 77 / 80 30 30 10 Mount Ida AR 94 72 101 73 / 40 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 84 68 92 70 / 60 10 10 10 Newport AR 86 70 93 73 / 30 20 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 90 72 97 74 / 80 20 20 10 Russellville AR 91 72 100 74 / 70 20 10 10 Searcy AR 88 70 96 73 / 80 20 20 20 Stuttgart AR 90 73 97 75 / 80 20 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74