FXUS64 KLZK 221726 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the state this afternoon through the late evening hours. -Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather hazard across Arkansas through tonight. -Very hot temperatures will remain in place across the southern half of the state through this evening. -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from Sunday through much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will be in place through much of the period. This could be interrupted at times from 22/21z through 23/08z as isolated to scattered storms are expected to develop along a weak front. This activity is expected to originate across north- central Arkansas before moving southeast across portions of central, eastern and southern Arkansas. Strong and erratic wind gusts could be seen at or near area terminals impacted by TS activity. Away from the TS activity, sfc winds will remain variable through the period at generally less than 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 71 94 70 90 / 20 0 50 50 Camden AR 72 99 73 96 / 30 10 20 20 Harrison AR 68 89 68 89 / 20 20 60 30 Hot Springs AR 73 97 73 96 / 20 10 30 20 Little Rock AR 74 96 74 94 / 30 10 50 40 Monticello AR 74 97 75 93 / 30 10 30 50 Mount Ida AR 71 96 72 97 / 20 10 20 10 Mountain Home AR 69 90 68 88 / 20 10 60 30 Newport AR 71 93 71 90 / 30 0 40 50 Pine Bluff AR 72 96 72 93 / 20 10 40 50 Russellville AR 72 94 72 95 / 20 10 40 30 Searcy AR 71 94 71 91 / 20 0 50 50 Stuttgart AR 73 95 73 92 / 30 10 50 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ032-039-042>046- 052>057-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...67