FXUS64 KLZK 160534 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 -Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the central and north central half of the state through early this morning. -Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on today over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for today. -Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front continues to push through the state bringing gusty north to northwest winds behind the boundary. An area of showers will move across parts of north and central Arkansas early this morning will diminish around sunrise in eastern Arkansas. MVFR cigs across northern terminals will lifting to VFR cigs around sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty north to northwest winds will persist through the late afternoon, then gradually diminish as the front and upper trough exit the state and push east of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 46 67 40 / 00 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...76