FXUS64 KLZK 151803 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal to near record temperatures will prevail again on Thursday for much of the state. - Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state through early Thursday afternoon. - Elevated wildfire danger will be possible on Friday over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. - Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A somewhat active weather pattern anticipated for the forecast period. Highest probabilities for MVFR (or lower) ceilings and reduced visibilities later this evening and into the overnight period will favor the northern terminals. Central to southern Arkansas should remain well within the VFR category through the period. A strong front will bring strong and gusty northerly winds beginning in the overnight period for the northern terminals and progressing southward into tomorrow morning across central to southern Arkansas. Expect winds to gust in excess of 20-30 kts starting tomorrow morning, strongest across central to southern Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 53 65 44 64 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 58 70 45 68 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 46 58 40 61 / 70 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 54 67 44 67 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 58 67 46 66 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 61 70 47 67 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 48 65 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 49 60 41 62 / 70 0 0 0 Newport AR 56 66 45 64 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 52 66 43 66 / 40 0 0 0 Searcy AR55 67 44 65 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 58 68 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...77