FXUS61 KLWX 240102
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
902 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then 
  dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week.

- 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with 
  thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon,
then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the 
week.

A few showers developed along the bay earlier this evening, then
quickly moved east and out of the area. Dry conditions, clear
skies, and cooler temperatures for tonight.

High pressure will continue to slowly build toward the area on 
Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and lower 
humidity levels. High temperatures will generally be in the 
upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 
60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-
week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

Heading into Wednesday, dry, pleasant conditions continue into 
much of the day and afternoon. As an upper level ridge over the 
midwest begins to flatten in amplitude, southwesterly mid-level 
winds advect tropical moisture northward into our region. As 
this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid 
conditions return through the end of the week. 

Temperatures rise back into late-August normals  with highs in 
the 80s and 90s Thursday with models depicting a cold front 
draping north to south across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper- 
level low near Hudson Bay pushes this front across our region, 
chances for showers and thunderstorms return and could linger 
into the weekend. Best chances for stronger storms are Thursday 
and Friday depending on the timing of a short wave deepening an
upper- level low over Ontario Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected at the 
terminals through Tuesday. A stray shower or storm can't be ruled 
out this afternoon into this evening, but chances are too low 
to mention in any of the TAFs.

Light to gentle winds turn southerly Wednesday afternoon. 
Initial VFR conditions could deteriorate as showers and 
thunderstorms potentially move in Wednesday night. Additional 
showers and storms may be possible on Thursday with continued
southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
West to northwesterly winds are forecast over the waters through
Tuesday as high pressure gradually approaches from the Ohio 
Valley. A few sporadic gusts could near low-end SCA levels this 
afternoon.

Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA 
thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling 
event ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies are expected to decrease over the course of the
day today in westerly flow. Annapolis may reach Action Stage 
around high tide, but no tidal flooding is anticipated.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/KJP/KVH
AVIATION...KJP/KVH
MARINE...KJP/KVH