FXUS61 KLWX 230700
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some information on the ongoing minor coastal flooding at
Annapolis and the potential at a few other sensitive locations
during the upcoming high tide cycle. 

Also, removed a key message now that storms are out of the area
and we move into a dry pattern for at least a few days. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions anticipated early next week.

- 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, 
     with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions anticipated early this week.

Some upslope showers may persist on the upslope areas of the 
Appalachians in northwest flow today. Breezy and cooler Sunday 
with a few fair weather clouds being the only thing to speak of.

On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. 
Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central 
Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With 
high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and 
cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. 

Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 
80s early this week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s 
throughout the region. 


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-
week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday.

Beginning Wednesday, a warm tropical air mass tracks northeast over 
the Mid-Atlantic, bringing humidity back to summertime normals as 
well as a gradual increase in temperatures. A shortwave upper-level 
trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes region and track 
eastward towards the coast between Wednesday and Thursday, and this 
combined with the increase in heat & humidity will create additional 
chances for rain & thunderstorm development across the region. Model 
guidance continues to show only marginal chances regarding any of 
these thunderstorms becoming severe, with some uncertainty remaining 
in the overall track of this system. Current guidance suggests that 
this system could be slow-moving across the region, with rain 
chances potentially extending into the end of the week as this 
system slowly tracks offshore. Overall, expect increasing humidity 
along with a few chances for rain late next week as this system 
slowly tracks towards the coast. Upper-level zonal flow takes over 
as this trough tracks east. 

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some clouds and low fog out there this morning at CHO and MRB at
times. That should scour out prior to sunrise as winds begin to
pick up along the cold front.   

Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals 
through Wednesday. Winds on Sunday through Tuesday remain out 
of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon 
hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower).

Periodic showers & thunderstorms could create temporarily reduced 
conditions at terminals during the afternoon & evening hours 
Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds shift southeasterly by 
Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds turn out of the WNW to NW through Tuesday, and should 
remain sub-SCA throughout that period for the most part. A few 
gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north and
during the afternoon hours, but not seeing a prolonged period 
enough to warrant an SCA at this time. 

Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above 
SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly
channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front.

Winds could reach marginal SCA conditions again Thursday 
evening as a cold front passes through the region. Scattered 
showers & thunderstorms in this timeframe could also create 
locally gusty winds over the waters, perhaps necessitating 
SMWs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated overnight, with a Coastal Flood
Advisory in effect for Annapolis. Alexandria and Havre de Grace
may come close in the upcoming high tide cycle as well. As the
front pushes through, anomalies will drop after the next cycle,
thus reducing any coastal flooding threat over the coming days. 

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for 
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT