FXUS61 KLWX 230044 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 844 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Targeted Flood Watch issued for parts of Central Virginia. Continue to monitor thunderstorms moving across the area for flooding and severe potential. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. - 2) Dry conditions anticipated early next week. - 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. An active evening to overnight hours ahead for the region as as strong upper trough moves from the OH Valley through the Mid- Atlantic. A stalled frontal boundary was noted across the central Shenandoah Valley to Central Virginia, which has been the focus of some of the heavier convection this evening. Rain amounts of 2-4" have been observed, and additional heavy rain could result in flash flooding, especially for urban and low-lying areas. A targeted Flood Watch remains in effected for parts of Central Virginia through midnight. The heavy thunderstorms around Charlottesville (as of 9PM) will move east toward Fredericksburg and the central Chesapeake Bay late this evening. Additional showers and storms over WV, the Alleghenies and northern Shenandoah Valley will steadily move east toward the I-95 metro late this evening. While the overall flood threat remains low due to this convection having faster forward speed, any training or slow moving storms over an urban area could cause flash flooding. Expect a gradual weakening trend overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes. Widespread showers and storms likely continue well past midnight, with conditions drying out from west to east late tonight. Showers or storms may persist until early morning across the Chesapeake Bay and northeast Maryland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated early next week. The front will clear the fcst area overnight, but some upslope showers may persist on the upslope areas of the Appalachians in NW flow Sunday. Breezy and cooler Sunday with scattered fair wx clouds. A sprinkle here in there is possible, but mainly dry. On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early next week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Heading into the middle of next week, surface winds shift southerly. As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions return through the end of the week. Temperatures rise back into late- August normals with highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday. Late next week, models depict a cold front dropping north to south across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper-level low near Hudson Bay pushes this front across our region, chances for showers and thunderstorms return. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms move east across the area through the night. Expecting some impacts at all terminals, with TEMPO groups added where confidence was highest. Adjustments likely needed as convection becomes more disorganized overnight. Coldfront clears the area overnight/early Sunday with NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Sct clouds 050 Sunday. Light to gentle winds shift westerly Wednesday afternoon.VFR conditions are expected early next week. && .MARINE... A cold front moves through the area tonight. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for strong thunderstorms that move across the waters late evening into tonight. Winds become NW behind the front Sunday, and could reach SCA levels for parts of the waters. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014. VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ026-027-029- 037>040-050-051-507-508. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/LFR/KVH AVIATION...LFR/KVH MARINE...LFR/KVH