FXUS64 KLUB 170312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1012 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures remain cool through the weekend, then rise back near or just above normal next week. - Dry weather is expected through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quiet and cool weather continues across West TX as a weak upper level ridge axis builds overhead. North winds have finally decreased as the surface pressure gradient relaxes with the approach of a ~1038 mb surface ridge, and we expect winds to become calm by sunrise as this ridge axis centers directly over our area. High level cloud cover ended up persisting a bit longer than expected this evening, but has also begun to thin and retreat southward, a trend which will continue overnight. These conditions will favor strong radiational cooling, supporting the coldest lows of the season thus far. Lows early Saturday morning are expected to be in the upper 20s to near 30 over the SW Panhandle and northern South Plains, and will likely be closer to 32 (or even a bit warmer) over the rest of the Caprock. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all areas on the Caprock. Lower elevation locations east of the escarpment are currently expected to remain above freezing tonight. Sunny skies and calm winds are expected on Saturday, but temperatures remain on the chilly side with highs near 60 degrees. SSW winds are then expected to increase Saturday evening, and while it will still be unseasonably cool Saturday night with lows in the 30s, the stronger winds are expected to keep sub-freezing conditions more limited on Sunday morning compared to Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunday begins a warming trend as weak ridging persists aloft and southwesterly surface flow continues to intensify. Models are now in good agreement keeping a series of upper level disturbances well to our west through the first half of the week, which keeps precipitation chances near zero over West TX through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will also steadily warm throughout the week as as a ~590dam ridge axis builds over the region. This will result in several days of temperatures near and above average with daily highs in the mid 70s Mon-Tue and upper 70s to low 80s Wed- Fri. Models then diverge regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern late in the week with differences in how quickly the broad upper level troughing shifts eastward. Depending on how quickly this occurs, showers may return to the forecast area during the Wed-Fri timeframe. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. The current NE wind looks to drop off throughout the evening hours to about 5-10 knots, and eventually shift around to the SW tomorrow afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024-027>030- 033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...SC