FXUS66 KLOX 200359
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
859 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...19/852 PM.

Light offshore flow will continue through Wednesday leading to
clear skies and warm temperatures. Beginning Thursday there will 
be a return to cooler May Grey conditions which will last through
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...19/850 PM.

***UPDATE***

Weak offshore flow teamed up with totally sunny skies today to
bring a 5 to 10 degree warm up to almost all of the forecast area
today. Unfortunately the warm temps and light offshore flow also
brought low humidities and some canyon winds which combined to
produce a hazardous fire weather environment which did not help
the fire fighters. Current forecast looks good with a return of
onshore flow by late morning Wednesday which will bring 3 to 5
degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys with up to 10 degrees across
the SBA south coast due to the lack of north flow. The interior
will continue to warm tomorrow by about 6 degrees.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very little change to the previous forecasts through the rest of
this week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, generally 1-3 degrees
warmer than today, except around 5 degrees warmer in the Antelope
Valley. Light offshore flow will start the day but will turn 
onshore by afternoon or sooner at the coast. Warmer valleys will
reach the lower 90s while areas towards the coast will be in the
70s and 80s. These are roughly 5-10 degrees above normal.

While the upper level pattern remains more or less the same
through the rest of the week, the primary change will be the 
reversal from offshore to onshore flow beginning Thursday which
will bring temperatures back down to near normal levels by the
weekend. This will also coincide with a return of the marine
layer, as early as Thursday in some areas but possibly not til
Friday or Saturday for the valleys. 

One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where
a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely
create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph
at times, particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/209 PM.

The rest of the 7 day forecast into early next week is very
benign as the baggy trough will persist with moderate to strong
onshore flow through the period. This is likely to maintain
temperatures near to slightly below normal temperatures with a
steady dose of night and morning low clouds and fog covering most
coast and valley areas. 

And once again there is the possible exception across southwestern
Santa Barbara County where offshore flow returns Monday night with
gusty north winds at times.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0032Z.

At 1616Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep, with an 
inversion up to 1600 ft with a temperature of 23 C. 

High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 6SM FU at 
KVNY due to Sandy Fire from 02Z-06Z Wednesday.

KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are 
expected. However, there is a 20% chance of MVFR VSBYs in HZ 
11Z-16Z Wednesday. There is a 15% chance of east wind component 
reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z-16Z Wednesday.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...19/755 PM.

High confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, winds 
and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) 
levels, with a few exceptions of local SCA level gusts during the
afternoons and evenings. Across the outer waters south of Port 
San Luis, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible each 
afternoon/evening through Friday, and again on Sunday. For the 
inner waters along the Central Coast south of Port San Luis, off 
the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the 
Santa Barbara Channel, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible 
on Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox