FXUS66 KLOX 161656 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 956 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ***UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS*** .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/738 AM. ***UPDATE*** Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area this morning. Currently, northeast winds, gusting between 45 and 70 MPH, are observed across Ventura and LA counties. Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, everything is on track. Current LAX-DAG gradient is -7.4 mb LAX-BFL is -3.8 mb and will likely strengthen a bit this morning. So, moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will continue across Ventura/LA counties with gusts of 80+ MPH at the windiest spots in the mountains (Magic Mountain Truck Trail, etc.) and widespread gusts peaking in the 45-65 MPH across the coasts/valleys. Across Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, winds will be weaker, but still will be gusts in the 30-45 mph range across the mountains and foothills. So, current suite of HIGH WIND WARNINGs and WIND ADVISORIES look great across Ventura/LA counties. Along with the wind, temperatures will be a concern today. Highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s will be common across the coasts and coastal valleys today. Based on Heat Risk grids, moderate to locally major heat risk is expected today across the coastal plain. Therefore, HEAT ADVISORIES will remain in effect today and will continue through Saturday. Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected. ***From Previous Discussion*** We are on track for the longest and strongest period of Santa Ana winds today, especially at lower elevations (coastal valleys to coast) with the strongest cooridor of winds sliding a bit north into a more traditional Santa Ana setup. High wind warnings and strong wind advisories look good for much of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties with peak winds likely in the 50 to 70 mph range through late morning or early afternoon before gradually weakening. Breezy east to northeast winds with gusts of 25 to 45 mph will also extend to most other areas that do not typically get much winds in this type of setup. Red Flag Warnings also continue to be in effect for a large portion of Southwest California. Please take care with fire ignition sources. Moderate-to-high heat risk is equally concerning, especially near the coast with highs again in the 90s to near 100. Temperatures will shoot up quickly this morning and stay quite warm well into the evening, especially where breezy winds continue, increasing the duration of the heat, which is particularly concerning for those without air conditioning or that spend significant time outdoors. A Heat Advisory continues near the coast through Saturday. On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Today. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly. A digging trough from the northwest and the return of onshore flow will bring significant cooling and moistening trends along with breezy northwest to onshore winds to the region. Daytime highs by Monday will mostly be in the 70s with a sprinkling of low 80s for warmer valleys. Signs of potentially inclement weather are likely by Monday night in the form of increasing mid to high clouds. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/403 AM. There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though low confidence on the details. Virtually all the solutions indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. We may not have a good handle on this system until early next week as our guidance struggles with storms coming from the northwest, especially closed, cut-off low pressure systems. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so there is a small potential for heavy rain and flood concerns. && .AVIATION...16/1644Z. At 16Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions, unless a fire breaks out upwind of an airport. NE-E winds will dominate the next 24 hours, with UDDF near any mountains and LLWS 10-20 knots near most airports, especially those with winds above 20 knots. Moderate confidence on wind forecasts (speed +/- 5 mph and direction +/- 30 degrees). KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no west influence. Moderate confidence in speed and timing. 60% chance of east winds in the 8-12 knot range from 18 to 24Z. LLWS 5-15 knots also possible in the 16Z-02Z window. East winds will go below 08 knots by 03Z. There is a 20% chance of east winds around 8 knots returning Saturday 16-20Z. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no south influence. LLWS 15-25 knots also possible at times in the 16Z-06Z window. && .MARINE...16/955 AM. NE to E winds will bring short period and hazard seas to many nearshore waters. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica where pockets of Gale Force winds of 30 to 40 knots are possible into the afternoon hours. Gusts of 15 to 25 knots will also be possible for the nearshore Central Coast waters as well as the waters from Orange County to Catalina. These winds will likely have rapid fluctuations. High confidence in still winds but much improved conditions on Saturday, followed by benign conditions on Sunday. If you have the option, go out on Sunday and try to stay off the waters Friday and Saturday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/Thompson AVIATION...RK MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox