FXUS63 KLMK 162345
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds and scattered light rain showers will continue 
  through this evening. 

* Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with frost and 
  possibly some freezing temperatures (over the Bluegrass region) on 
  Sunday morning. 

* After today's light rain, dry and seasonable weather is expected 
  over the weekend and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

********Breezy and Cool Today********* 

With frontal passage this morning, winds have been breezy out of the 
northwest. We hit our max temps this morning right before frontal 
passage, and will hit our mins close to midnight. Overnight lows 
will be around 40. Expect spotty, light showers through the 
remainder of the day. 

A surface high pressure will build into the region on Saturday and 
the low pressure continue off to the northeast. This tight pressure 
gradient will keep breezy conditions through Saturday afternoon 
before weakening. Skies will gradually clear by Saturday afternoon 
from northwest to southeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-
upper 50s.

***********This Weekend's Chill***********

Sunday morning, temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s, which 
will bring frost and a chance for freezing temperatures. A Freeze 
Watch has been issued for Bluegrass counties. This may be upgraded 
to a Freeze Warning or a Frost Advisory in subsequent forecasts. 
Areas southwest of this Freeze Watch may be added to the potential 
frost advisory. In the afternoon, highs will warm into the low-mid 
60s.

*****************Next Week******************

We will remain under loose ridging and surface high pressure for 
much of next week. This means light winds, clear skies, and highs 
creeping up into the upper 60s on Monday, 70s through the middle of 
next week, and potentially scraping 80 in a few southwestern spots 
by the end of next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s for 
next week. Northeasterly flow and dry air aloft may bring some 
chances for dry air mix down next week. If this is the case, we will 
see drier afternoon RHs in the upper teens and low 20s. Should be a 
seasonable fall week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

As the front moves farther off to the east, MVFR ceilings are 
expected to drop south out of Indiana over area TAF sites. The lower 
of these ceilings, 1,500 feet or so, are expected to impact LEX and 
RGA for several hours tonight. Farther west, at SDF, HNB, and BWG 
2,500 feet ceiling are expected to pass overhead a little quicker. 
LEX and RGA could see some additional showers out of this deck too. 
Winds will increase out of the north and remain gusty until Saturday 
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for KYZ036-037-041>043-049.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SRW/JPH
AVIATION...KDW