FXUS64 KLCH 240548 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect again today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Afternoon highs will again flirt with or exceed 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 107 to 115. Temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - Scattered (30-60%) thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya basin this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation chances will be lower across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. - Precipitation chances will increase (50-80%) area wide Thursday and Friday with scattered (30-50%) thunderstorms expected each afternoon next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Afternoon highs Sunday fell a few degrees short of records, but still maxed out 5-10 degrees above climatological normals a persistent upper level ridge remains centered over the south central CONUS. Temperatures at this hour remain in the low to mid 80s everywhere that wasn't fortunate enough to see the few afternoon thunderstorms that managed to develop. Lows will struggle to fall below 80 with consistent dewpoints in the upper 70s. No changes were made to the previously issued heat advisory which will again be in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM today. Maximum heat indices will range from 107-115 with the most intense heat expected across southeast Texas where the ridging will be stronger limiting convection and cloud cover. Deeper moisture wrapping around the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge will offer somewhat higher (30-60%) precipitation chances in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya basin late this afternoon into this evening. Height falls from a trough extending across much of the eastern U.S. may provide some weak synoptic lifting to aid in convective development, but the vast majority of energy will come from strong instability from another day of afternoon highs near triple digits. SPC has highlighted south central and southeast Louisiana in a slight risk for severe weather Monday afternoon with the only real hazard being damaging straight line winds from collapsing storm cores. Some small hail also cannot be ruled out. A similar setup is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday as better moisture and weak troughing will offer better (40-70%) precipitation chances across Acadiana and into southeast Louisiana with more limited (20-30%) chances across southwest Louisiana and virtually none across southeast Texas. Guidance has been in consistent agreement on the "heat dome" ridge finally beginning to retrograde west Thursday becoming centered near the four corners region. With it's retreat, higher moisture and broader troughing along with a weak surface boundary will move into the region providing the first high (50-80%) chance of precipitation the area has seen in some time. The better upper level support may allow storms to continue Thursday night into Friday with continued afternoon storms through next weekend. The departure of the ridge combined with the higher convection and cloud cover will allow daily temperatures to fall back to near seasonal normals with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period along with light southwesterly winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across parts of central and south central Louisiana potentially impacting AEX, LFT and ARA between 19-02Z. Precipitation chances diminish further west with BPT and LCH less likely to see any impacts from storms. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend as higher moisture and a weak upper level trough move into the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend as upper level ridging breaks down. The higher precipitation chances and cloud cover will bring daily high temperatures back down into the low to mid 90s. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40- 50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66